Mitchell Robinson shows exactly how he can raise Knicks’ playoff ceiling in promising season debut

Despite not playing all season, Mitchell Robinson had still been a bit of a panacea for Knicks fans. Whenever someone mentioned the team’s bottom-10 defense, the answer, inevitably, was some version of “Wait until Mitchell Robinson comes back!” Reductive, to be sure, but in his season debut during New York’s thrilling 114-113 win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday, Robinson showed virtually every way in which he can help further propel the Knicks toward a championship this postseason.

Robinson played just 12 minutes as he continues to build up his wind after recovering from ankle surgery, putting up six points, five rebounds and an assist. The number that really stands out, though, is that the Knicks were a team-best plus-11 in his minutes. Let’s look at a few significant ways in which Robinson’s return can take New York to the next level.

Offensive rebounding

Anyone who watched the absolute pounding the Knicks gave the Cleveland Cavaliers in their 2023 first-round series understands how impactful Robinson can be on the offensive glass. During that series, he had nearly as many offensive rebounds (29) as Cavs center Jarrett Allen had total rebounds (37). While Robinson only pulled down one in Friday’s return to the court, he also got his fingertips on a few 50-50 balls that will likely go his way once his conditioning gets up to par.

At 7-foot and listed at 240 pounds (he looks even bigger than that), Robinson is simply a monster of a human being. When the ball goes up and he makes up his mind to go get it, tremendous strength and flawless technique are required to keep him from his goal. Just watch how Grizzlies center Brandon Clarke — not exactly a small man himself — gets moved through the paint like a paper doll by Robinson as he collects the offensive rebound. He misses the putback, but those are going to go in an overwhelming majority of the time once he gets back in shape (don’t forget Robinson set the NBA record for field goal accuracy at 74.2% in 2020).

Last season, with Robinson playing 31 games, the Knicks led the NBA with just over 13 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions. This season, they’re 22nd with just under 11 per game. Offensive rebounding has disappeared from the Knicks’ identity, and Robinson is exactly the person to help bring it back.

Rim protection

As unassailable as Karl-Anthony Towns has been this season offensively, there’s no getting around the fact that he’s not exactly Jaren Jackson Jr. as a rim protector. Towns ranks in the 23rd percentile in defending shots at the basket, per Synergy Sports — 62nd in the NBA for any player with at least 100 such possessions.

In Robinson’s last semi-full season in 2022-23, he ranked in the 65th percentile in defense at the rim — not quite elite, but certainly a vast improvement over Towns. Those stats also don’t include shots that aren’t taken simply due to Mitchell’s presence. We saw a few of them on Friday night, including this play where Ja Morant works himself into what would otherwise be a routine floater from the dotted line, but Robinson scares him off. Morant instead passes to the corner, where Desmond Bane has his 3-point attempt blocked by OG Anunoby.

Towns just isn’t bringing that level of intimidation on the defensive end.

Another bonus with Robinson is the effort level. For a large man he can actually move pretty well, so when you combine that with a solid motor you get plays like this, where he runs Santi Aldama off of his original 3-point spot despite being below the free-throw line when he catches the ball.

The Knicks allow the ninth-most points in the paint of any NBA team this season, which does not bode well for the playoffs. Robinson is an antidote for that, and will drastically change the team’s defensive makeup if he can stay healthy.

Vertical spacing

Pretty much the only negative thing you can say about Towns as an offensive player is that he’s not the most dynamic vertical athlete. Enter Robinson, essentially the prototypical lob threat who lingers around the dunker spot on most possessions ready to punish any big men who cheat off of him to help on drives by Jalen Brunson or one of the Knicks’ other perimeter scorers. Watch here as he takes an easy dump-off from Anunoby in Friday’s win in Memphis, then shows good composure and touch to finish the layup.

With how much teams load up on Brunson in the paint, Robinson should get at least three or four lob opportunities per game — a source of easy buckets that New York doesn’t really have without him.

He’s also athletic enough to do a little work on the perimeter as a dribble hand-off hub. On Friday, he made a great read on a Draymond Green-style QB keeper that led to a wide-open foray to the lane and a casual two-handed dunk. This was actually his first basket of the season.

Of course this isn’t going to become Tom Thibodeau’s bread-and-butter offensive set, but the fact that Robinson is capable of such playmaking (and finishing) at least gives the Knicks another look.

KAT insurance

Towns has been a warrior this season, missing only six games, but it’s always nice to have a backup ready who you feel confident throwing out there for extended minutes. Especially with the knee injury to Ariel Hukporti, the Knicks are simply low on big bodies, and Robinson will help Thibodeau rest a little easier if Towns is forced to miss time.

The other issue with Towns, of course, is foul trouble. For his career, he’s averaged 3.6 fouls per game in the playoffs, and often finds himself heading to the bench early because of it. That’s exactly what happened on Friday night, when Robinson was forced to enter the game just before the seven-minute mark of the first quarter after Towns picked up his second foul.

Prior to Robinson’s return, the only other option besides Hukporti was to put Precious Achiuwa at center, but the team’s net rating has dropped by nearly nine points per 100 possessions with him on the floor this season. Compare that to Robinson, who raised the team’s net rating by 6.5 points in his last healthy season in 2022-23.

Towns is going to be essential to any potential extended Knicks playoff run, but it’s a luxury to have a trusted backup like Robinson if and when foul trouble rears its ugly head again.