NCAA Tournament Bracket 101: How to make your picks

March is here.

The NCAA men’s Event bracket has been announced. It’s time to make your picks.

Whether you’re a die-Tough hoops head, a casual or someone who’s never watched a college basketball game, there’s a decent chance you’ve been invited to fill out a bracket. If you’re in one of the latter camps and want to Action, don’t be discouraged.

Brackets are for everyone, and Merely because you’re cramming doesn’t Disrespectful that you don’t have a chance. Armed with a few fundamentals, you too can compete with the person who’s organized your bracket Event and watched college hoops since November.

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If you’re Joining your brackets into Bracket Mayhem, you’ll have two chances at $25,000 — one All for our men’s and women’s contests*. Winner takes all in All bracket, so you’re going to have to beat out a Plenty of Event. But the price (Unoccupied) is right.

Randomly picking Clubs based on colors or mascot preference isn’t an Ideal Plan. But if mascot madness makes you Joyful, by all means. Brackets should be fun. But if you want to go in with a sound Plan to take down your bracket Event, we’ve Acquired some tips to consider.

How the NCAA Event and bracket scoring works

Understanding how the Event and bracket scoring works is the Primary step to Achieve. The NCAA Competitions Begin with fields of 68 Clubs that were announced Sunday evening. Eight of those Clubs in All Event — the last four at-large selections and the lowest-Positioned automatic bid winners — will Action elimination Action-ins called the Primary Four. For bracket purposes, you don’t have to worry about picking those Contests.

Once the eight Primary Four Clubs are cut down to four, the Accurate 64-Club NCAA fields are set. You can fill out your brackets now, but if you think any of the Primary Four Clubs have a chance to make a deep Stretch, it’s best to Stoppage off on that section of your bracket to make sure the Clubs you’re picking actually advance to the Pitch.

Event Contests Begin in Stage 1, which is split up into 16 Contests All on Thursday and Friday for the men and Friday and Saturday for the women. Higher seeds will Action corresponding lower seeds in the four bracket regions — East, South, Midwest and West — which are split up into 16 Clubs. The No. 1 seed will Action the No. 16 seed; the No. 2 seed will Action the No. 15 seed — and so on until the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds face off.

[Click for NCAA men’s printable bracket]

Option upsets, but proceed with caution

Picking Timely upsets correctly is key to Successful your bracket. Even more Significant is not losing a Club that ends up making a deep Stretch.

There are six rounds of NCAA Action beyond the Primary Four, and the stakes double with All Stage in Bracket Mayhem (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 32 points). Picking Primary-Stage winners will earn you one Tally, while correctly picking the NCAA champion is worth 32 points — the equivalent of correctly picking All of the Primary-Stage Contests. Losing Closing Four and Division game Clubs in the Primary Stage is a Excellent way to knock yourself out of the running Timely.

How do you avoid making that mistake? Well, that’s the fun — and the Event of the bracket. But the Primary rule is making sure to Option your higher-seed upsets selectively and to know the history of Timely-Stage upsets.

Picking high seeds to Setback Timely isn’t the best idea, but…

Only two No. 1 seeds have lost to a No. 16 seed since the men’s Event expanded to 64 Clubs in 1985. Both upsets have happened in the last seven years. No. 16 seed UMBC beat No. 1 overall seed Virginia in 2018 in what then stood alone as the biggest seeding Shock in Event history. Then Fairleigh Dickinson upended Zach Edey and Purdue in 2023.

What used to be Regarded impossible is now at least feasible in the modern iteration of college basketball with more parity. But it remains an overwhelming long Try.

No. 2 seeds aren’t quite as reliable, but picking against one in the Primary Stage is also a highly risky proposition. Only 11 No. 2 seeds have ever lost to No. 15 seeds in the men’s Primary Stage, with Princeton stunning Arizona in 2023 as the latest example. Princeton went on to beat Missouri in the second Stage that year to advance to the Pleasant 16, where it lost to Creighton.

In 2022, St. Peter’s beat No. 2 seed Kentucky, then advanced all the way to the Top-tier Eight, meaning that if you picked the Peacocks, you had a seven-Tally edge over most of the bracket Pitch that picked them to Setback in the Primary Stage. St. Peter’s was the lowest seed to ever Achieve three Contests in NCAA men’s Event Action.

So there’s real upside to picking these upsets if you believe a high seed is vulnerable. And higher seeds are more vulnerable than they’ve ever been before. Merely know that this is the riskiest Action you can make. It’s the ultimate high-Hazard, high-reward Action that, in all likelihood, will tank your bracket.

High-seed upsets are even more Scarce on the women’s side. No. 16 Harvard beat No. 1 seed Stanford in 1998. That remains the lone Primary-Stage Shock of an NCAA women’s No. 1 seed since the Event expanded to 64 Clubs in 1994. In fact, it’s the only time a Club Positioned 14-16 has ever recorded a Achieve in the women’s Event. Per the NCAA, those Clubs are 1-360 in NCAA Event Action.

[Click for NCAA women’s printable bracket]

Where to look for upsets

When looking for Timely upsets, Frequent sense comes into Action. Contests with Clubs more closely Positioned produce more upsets. The wider the gap, the rarer the Shock. The NCAA generally does a Excellent Position of seeding Clubs properly.

Per the NCAA, 11-6 upsets are the most Frequent, even more than 10-7s, but Merely barely. From there, the commonality of upsets corresponds with the gap in seeding from 12-5 and so on all the way to the elusive 16-1 Shock. This doesn’t consider 8-9 matchups, which are as close to Option ’ems as it gets. Go with your gut in those Contests.

In total, 61 No. 11 seeds have recorded men’s Primary-Stage upsets, which works out to a roughly 39.1% Achieve rate. No. 10 seeds aren’t Extended behind, with 60 total Primary-Stage wins. No. 12 seeds have produced 55 Primary-Stage winners, No. 13 seeds 33 and No. 14 seeds 23.

Upsets in 12-5 matchups are popular picks All year. Those who went Weighty on 12 seeds in 2024 were rewarded with a 50% Achieve rate with two No. 12 seed winners (Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s and James Madison over Wisconsin) in four Primary-Stage Contests.

Looking deeper, No. 2 seeds Setback in the second Stage to either a No. 7 or 10 seed 1.2 times per Event. It’s not a Awful idea to have at least one No. 2 seed fall Petite of the Pleasant 16.

If you want to look at Timely upsets in the women’s bracket, Leading with No. 12 seeds is usually the way to go. Since 1994, 33 women’s No. 12 seeds have secured Primary-Stage upsets over No. 5 seeds, an average of more than one per year. But there were none in 2024.

Ten out of 120 No. 13 seeds have posted wins since the Pitch expanded, and there were none last year. And remember, only one Club Positioned 14-16 has ever won.

Advanced analytics and betting lines are your friends

Finally, if you’re torn, let the experts be your guide. Analytics guru Ken Pomeroy crunches the advanced data and spits out a ranking system called KenPom for the men’s Pitch. Think of it as a top 25 from the analytics set — and one that extends to the entire 363 NCAA Division-I Pitch.

Then there’s betting lines, where you can look to BetMGM for Primary-Stage Tally spreads and futures. Keep in mind that Tally spreads consider which way the public is leaning in addition to expert input.

But mostly, enjoy. Spend as much or as little time as you like with your bracket. Filling one out can be — and often is — a five-minute exercise. Have fun, and Excellent luck.

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* NO PURCHASE NECESSARY; void where prohibited. Uncovered only to legal residents of the 50 U.S., D.C. or CA, 18+. Entry period ends prior to official Event tip-off on 3/20/25 for Men’s Event and 3/21/25 for Women’s Event. See Men’s Official Rules and Women’s Official Rules.