Court Vision: Why is NCAA Tournament expansion talk a thing? Is Gonzaga really in trouble?

Did March sneak up on anyone else?

We have been enjoying the regular season so much that we kind of forgot it’s almost over. But the reality is, the first conference tournament bracket — thanks, Atlantic Sun — is already out. League titles are being clinched. The bubble is bubbling. All of the things!

But that means it’s time for one of our least favorite annual storylines: greedy, grubby fingers trying to wreck something that doesn’t need fixing.

1. NCAA Tournament expansion

On “College GameDay” two weekends ago, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported (almost unprompted) that while NCAA Tournament expansion talks are still ongoing, decision-makers “seem to be down the road” with a concept that would alter the best postseason in sports by growing the field from 68 teams to potentially 76.

“We should know fairly soon,” Thamel said. “Two, three months. Something like that.”

At the risk of calling expansion “imminent,” Thamel isn’t reporting this live on GameDay if it weren’t a serious possibility. And given that timeline, the NCAA and its television partners may settle on an agreement in time to adjust the 2026 tournament. All of which is a long way of saying, this very well may be the last Big Dance as we know it and as we’ve known it since 1985.

Mechanically speaking, what might going to 76 teams look like? An expanded First Four, per Thamel, with eight teams competing in Dayton — where the First Four is held annually — and eight more at another site to be determined (likely outside of the Eastern time zone, for logistical reasons).

Using The Athletic’s latest bracket prediction, let’s consider what this year’s field would look like with 76 teams. All of the following would be included, rather than sweating out their spots:

• Indiana (17-11), which already has announced coach Mike Woodson will be stepping down
• Wake Forest (19-9), which has one Top-25 win all season and has lost consecutive games to 11-17 NC State and 14-14 Virginia
• North Carolina (18-11), which is 1-10 in Quad 1 games with a single victory all season over a team currently thought to be in the field
• SMU (21-7), which has zero top-50 wins all season
• Plus Cincinnati, Xavier, Boise State and TCU, which have combined to go 37-31 in their respective conferences with just two Top-25 wins

Other than SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, who wants that?

Regarding Sankey, whose tenure has included going scorched earth on everything college sports hold dear in pursuit of cartoonish stacks of cash, it should surprise no one that Thamel said expansion conversations have been “driven by the power conferences.” Sankey even told The Athletic last spring that automatic bids for smaller conferences should be “part of the review” of the NCAA Tournament. Suffice it to say, it’s obvious how this is going to go: More mediocre high-major teams (like the ones above) will be included while deserving mid-majors get left out in the cold.

Which of these resumes is more deserving of making the Big Dance?

Reasonable arguments can be made for both sides. It’s a coin flip. Do you prefer the total wins and better Q1 record or the metric rankings? Time’s up. Team A is … San Diego State, and Team B is … Georgia. In The Athletic’s latest bracket, those two face off in this season’s First Four.

The point is that both have defensible arguments for inclusion. But does anyone think that many — if any — of those additional bids are going to teams like SDSU? From the Mountain West, Missouri Valley or Big West, instead of the SEC?

If you do, I have a bridge to sell you.

The simple logic is that more games equal more revenue. NCAA Tournament revenue accounts for, at most, five percent of the budget at most high-major schools (although it’s more at mid- and low-majors). That’s not nothing, but in the grand scheme of modern college sports, it’s not the end-all, be-all. The motivation for expansion, then, is as much about “inclusion” as anything else. With Division I men’s basketball having ballooned to 364 teams — which is a story for another day — only 18.7 percent of Division I is represented in a 68-team field. And while 76 teams are only marginally better, at 20.9 percent of teams, that does move the needle at least a little closer to the 25 percent threshold recommended by the NCAA Division I Transformation Committee in January 2023.

But who cares what that committee recommended?

The NCAA Tournament has existed in its current iteration for four decades and has proven time and time again that it needs no alterations. Need anyone be reminded of Saint Peters’ Elite 8 run in 2022? Fairleigh-Dickinson in 2023? Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State in the Final Four? People like Sankey aren’t advocating for more of those opportunities; they’re advocating for more dollars in their pockets and more of their toys in the sandbox — at Cinderella’s expense.

2. It’s time to talk Gonzaga

Gonzaga isn’t going to miss the NCAA Tournament, right?

It’s closer than you’d think and closer than the Zags truly have been to the cutline since maybe 2011. Mark Few’s team went 25-10 that season with just three top-50 wins in the regular season, compared to two sub-100 losses. It ultimately earned a No. 11 seed — one of just three times in the past two decades (the others being 2007 and 2016) that Gonzaga has been a double-digit seed.

Now compare that to this season. Gonzaga’s on the same pace: 22-8 with only two top-50 wins, both of which came in November. And while these Zags don’t have any sub-100 losses weighing down their resume, they don’t have any wins over sure-fire tournament teams. (Baylor and San Diego State — Gonzaga’s two top-50 wins — are solidly on the bubble.) Frankly, the computer rankings are carrying a lot of weight for Few’s team as Gonzaga is in the top 10 in both the NET and by KenPom. After Gonzaga, the next highest-ranked NET team with two or fewer Quad-1 wins is VCU, at 29.

While Few’s team isn’t below the cutline, it would serve the Zags well not to fall flat in their regular-season finale vs. San Francisco on Saturday or in the WCC tournament. Bracket Matrix has Gonzaga as a No. 9 seed, but that’s before Tuesday’s, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s results factor in. (The SEC earned several massive bubble wins this week, like Arkansas over Texas and Georgia over Florida.)

With Saint Mary’s sweeping the regular-season series and clinching the WCC outright for the second straight season, it’s the first time since 1990-92 — when Few was still a fresh-faced assistant — that Gonzaga hasn’t earned at least a share of the WCC regular-season title in consecutive campaigns. That speaks to the team’s relative mediocrity as well as anything.

Gonzaga’s at the point where it’s going to get the benefit of the doubt from the committee. And it’s not like it has any bad losses, with an overtime road defeat at 20-win Oregon State as the worst of the bunch.

But it’s a situation worth monitoring during the next few weeks. I wouldn’t bet on the Zags missing the field if the bracket dropped today, but if nothing else, Gonzaga making a 10th consecutive Sweet 16 — which would break its tie with Duke for the longest such streak of the modern era — feels, unlikely.

3. A bubblicious spotlight

Three teams that, for better or worse, won’t go away:

Arkansas: This feels impossible given the Razorbacks’ early season “defense,” but it’s true: Arkansas has the fifth-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country since Feb. 1, per Bart Torvik, ahead of juggernauts such as Duke, Tennessee and Houston. And it’s not like John Calipari’s team has been playing bad teams this month. Arkansas is 5-3 during that stretch with wins over Kentucky and Missouri, which are both tracking as top-four seeds. So, what gives?

For starters, credit to Calipari, who most of the college basketball universe was doubting weeks ago. And why wouldn’t we? Arkansas defended ball screens about as well as you and I do, dear readers. The proof, from the Hogs’ first SEC game vs. Tennessee:

Does the primary defender stop his man? Nope. How about the screener’s defender stopping the roll man? Also no. It’s not quite a red carpet to the basket, but it’s as close as you’ll find in a high-major conference game.

Now compare that to Wednesday night and Arkansas’ ball-screen defense vs. Texas:

That’s the same primary defender, D.J. Wagner (No. 21), only he looks like a different player. He chased over the screen and prevented the easy drive or pull-up jumper. Meanwhile, Jonas Aidoo (No. 9) stayed level with the screener as soon as he rolled, cutting off any potential passing window. The roll subsequently got blown up on the backside by Johnell Davis. Julian Larry still attempted the post entry, and Aidoo came away with the easy steal. Overall, it was much stickier, stouter coverage.

Opponents have shot only 30 percent from 3-point range against Arkansas this month, per Bart Torvik, and that is a top-50 rate nationally. That’s more like Calipari’s old Kentucky teams, which relied on lanky athletes to disrupt opposing actions. Combine that defensive surge with Zvonimir Ivisic’s offensive ascent — the 7-foot-2 Croatian has the first three 20-point games of his career in the Hogs’ past six games while shooting 40 percent from 3 — and Calipari has a team that suddenly doesn’t look so fun to play against.

Georgia: Maybe the biggest bubble result of the week was Georgia’s shocking 88-83 win over Florida. But the final score doesn’t nearly do that game justice. UGA led by as many as 26 points in the first half before Florida mounted a comeback. The Gators eventually went on a 13-0 run in the final few minutes to take their first lead all night, 79-78, with less than 90 seconds to play. But soon after, Blue Cain delivered what turned out to be the game-winning 3-pointer on his first attempt from deep in the game:

Georgia forced a turnover and a missed deep 3 on Florida’s next two possessions to seal it. Wildly, that completed Georgia’s first AP top-five win since January 2004, and it might be the final piece to the Bulldogs’ NCAA Tournament resume. A 5-10 SEC record is not anything to write home about, but the overall resume ain’t bad.

A nonconference, neutral-court win over St. John’s has aged marvelously, as has a home win over Kentucky in Georgia’s second SEC game. Plus, every loss is to a top-40 team. And with Texas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt left on the schedule, there’s room for Mike White’s team to stack a few more wins and eliminate any doubt.

North Carolina: Since the NET was first introduced in 2018-19, only one team has made the NCAA Tournament with a single Quad 1 win: Drake in 2021.

That doesn’t bode well for UNC, which is currently 1-10 in Quad 1 games. But the good news? The Tar Heels, who have won four straight behind a revamped starting lineup (albeit against terrible competition), have seemingly rediscovered some confidence, just in time for one last crack at a second Quad 1 win.

The bad news is that the game is against Duke, which looks like the best team in the country and led by more than 30 the first time the rivals faced off in early February.

On one hand, that matchup remains awful for the undersized Tar Heels. But at the risk of getting Tar Heels fans’ hopes up: What if Hubert Davis’ team has found something of late? Because very quietly UNC has posted the fourth-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country during this winning streak, per Bart Torvik. (Don’t say anything about the 198th-ranked defense.) Admittedly, those wins have come against 12-16 Syracuse, 11-17 NC State, 14-14 Virginia and 16-12 Florida State. But the larger shift behind that surge might carry: Davis once again tweaking his starting lineup and finally adding some size.

He reinserted 6-9 graduate forward Jae’Lyn Withers, who started UNC’s first seven games, into the starting five, which allowed Davis to stop misplaying 6-6 freshman wing Drake Powell as a small-ball four. Those decisions in turn sent sometimes-starters Ian Jackson and Seth Trimble to the bench, although both still see significant minutes. It’s not a direct correlation, but that spacing and lineup balance have contributed to UNC, which shot a middling 34 percent from 3 all season, suddenly knocking down 44.4 percent of its 3s the past two weeks, good for the 15th-best rate in the country.

Is that sustainable? That’s both a Withers-specific and big-picture question. As for Withers, there is a massive discrepancy between his production in UNC’s first 25 games and its past four:

• First 25 games: 4.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 38.2 percent from 3 in 14 minutes per game
• Past four games: 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 62.5 percent from 3 in 23.5 minutes

Expecting a player who made 13 of his 34 3-point attempts during the first four months of the season to suddenly keep up a 10-for-16 rate is almost definitely setting Withers up to fail. But the spacing he provides might not be fool’s gold and might provide UNC its best chance of countering Cooper Flagg and Duke.

Beating Duke is UNC’s easiest way to push to the right side of the bubble, but even a loss in that game isn’t necessarily fatal if the Tar Heels’ newfound lineup leads them on a mini ACC Tournament run. Crazier things have happened.

​(Top photo of Mike Woodson: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)