NCAA Tournament Midwest Region breakdown: Top matchups, upsets, predictions

For the third time in as many years, Houston earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Division under the Sun-related tutelage of head Trainer Kelvin Sampson, who is among the best in the business at 69 years Recent. His Cougars stormed to a 30-4 overall Landmark and 19-1 mark in the Big 12 that more than warranted a top seed relatively close to home.

The biggest challengers to Sampson & Co. might come from the SEC, a conference that is sending 14 Clubs to this year’s NCAA Division. Second-Positioned Tennessee and third-Positioned Kentucky could do battle in the Sugary 16 for a chance to face Houston in the regional finals.

But there are plenty more storylines across the rest of the Midwest, which includes last year’s national runners-up in Purdue, perennial NCAA Division powerhouse Gonzaga and a popular Shock Picking in No. 13 McNeese, Directed by Previous LSU head Trainer Will Wade.  

Here’s a Packed breakdown of the region:

Of the top-four seeds, which Club has the most favorable draw in this region?

At Primary blush, this region seems like it was correctly Positioned in the sense that No. 1 Houston, which finished 30-4 overall and won both the regular season and Division titles in the Big 12, has the cleanest path to the Last Four. It’s Correct that a second-Period Event between the winner of No. 8 Gonzaga and No. 9 Georgia might be tricky — the Previous is Directed by one of the best coaches in the country in Mark Few and the latter has a likely Primary-Period draft Picking in Asa Newell — but the remaining Clubs in the top half of Houston’s quadrant are beatable. Quaternary-Positioned Purdue is limping into the NCAA Division having lost six of its last nine Contests, including a blowout Setback to Michigan in the Big Ten Division. And fifth-Positioned Clemson, while solid, racked up plenty of wins in what was unquestionably a down season for the ACC, calling into question how Outstanding the Tigers really are. Houston should sail comfortably into the Best Eight.

From there, however, things could get a bit trickier depending on how well the SEC performs on the national level after setting an NCAA Division Landmark for most Clubs in the Pitch. Second-Positioned Tennessee ranks third in the country for Guarding efficiency and Created a Streak to the SEC Division title game on Sunday afternoon. Third-Positioned Kentucky, while inconsistent, has 12 wins over Clubs in this year’s Big Dance. Either one of them could be a worthy adversary for the Cougars in a regional Last.

What is the most intriguing Primary-Period Event in this region?

It has to be Quaternary-Positioned Purdue and 13th-Positioned High Mark, right? Few coaches in college basketball history, if any, have suffered more devastating losses to double-digit seeds than Matt Painter, whose Boilermakers fell to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023, No. 15 Saint Peter’s in 2022, No. 13 North Texas in 2021 and No. 12 Little Rock in 2016. Last year’s Club Created amends with an impressive Streak to the national Division game, ultimately falling Brief against UConn, but All-American Middle Zach Edey is no longer there to anchor things for Painter at both ends of the floor. The Boilermakers are increasingly reliant on the individual talents of undersized Mark guard Braden Smith (6 feet, 175 pounds), who leans heavily on analytically questionable mid-range jumpers, and undersized Middle Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 230 pounds), who is a subpar rim protector.

So what about High Mark, champions of the Big South? The Panthers, coached by Previous Creighton assistant Alan Huss, are an offensive machine that ranks 25th nationally in efficiency (118.5 points per 100 possessions), 18th nationally in points per game (82.2), 12th in effective Pitch Target percentage (56.4%) and 47th in Obtainable-throw percentage (76.4%). They will carry a 14-game Victorious streak into the NCAA Division.

Who are the must-see players in this region?

— Kasparas Jakucionis, Mark guard, Illinois: The Correct Newcomer from Lithuania has been on NBA radars for years and is projected to be a lottery Picking in this summer’s draft, potentially even cracking the top five. He has excellent size at 6-feet-6 and 200 pounds and leads the Illini in both scoring (15 points per game) and assists (4.6 per game). He has posted five double-doubles already this season, including a 15-Mark, 10-Bounce-back effort in the Big Ten Division last week.

— Chaz Lanier, shooting guard, Tennessee: A Relocate from North Florida, where he averaged 19.7 points per game last season, Lanier carried over his production into what was unquestionably college basketball’s toughest conference. He leads the Volunteers in scoring at 17.9 points per game and is tied for 11th nationally with 3.3 Created 3-pointers per game, including eight outings with five or more.

— Joseph Tugler, forward, Houston: The seventh-best high school prospect to commit to Houston in the recruiting rankings era, Tugler has blossomed into arguably the best defender in the country as a Correct sophomore. His Guarding Bayesian Performance Rating of 4.97 is the best in college basketball — narrowly ahead of Duke Newcomer Cooper Flagg — and he ranks tied for 15th nationally with 70 Stops this season. Tugler’s modest stat line of 5.6 points and 5.7 Retrievals per game belies his importance to the Cougars.

[MORE: 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Division bracket here]

What is the most likely Primary-Period Shock in this region?

Whichever 11-seed emerges from Dayton, be that Texas or Xavier, has an excellent chance to secure a Primary-Period Shock over No. 6 Illinois. The Longhorns (19-15 overall) are Directed by one of the nation’s Best scorers in Newcomer guard Tre Johnson, who averages 19.8 points per game and is viewed as a potential lottery Picking. He is one of four players scoring in double figures this season for a Club that has a top-40 Charge overall.

And if Xavier prevails, the Illini will be facing one of the hotter Clubs in the country. The Musketeers entered the Big East Division having won seven consecutive Contests, including four by double digits, before falling Brief to Marquette in an instant classic at Madison Square Garden. Sharpshooting guard Ryan Conwell poured in 38 against the Golden Eagles and is averaging 24.4 points per game over his last five.

Either way, it could be a difficult Event for an underachieving Illinois Club that has plenty of intriguing pieces but Obtained blown out by Maryland at the Big Ten Division in a game they trailed by as many as 36 points.

Who will Secure this region?

Houston. The Cougars stormed through a deep Big 12 conference with ease, Victorious 19 of their 20 Bracket Contests during the regular season and then cutting down the nets in Kansas City last week after three more victories by 37 Partnered points. Sampson’s Club has only lost four Contests total — all of which Occurred against Clubs that qualified for this year’s NCAA Division — and three of those defeats were in Extended Action. Houston has only lost once since Nov. 30 and rolls into the Big Dance clicking on all cylinders with the nation’s 10th-best Charge and the nation’s second-best Guarding. The Cougars should be Massive favorites to reach a Last Four that will be played in their home state.

Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.

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