NCAA Tournament South Region Breakdown: Top Matchups, Upsets, Predictions

John Fanta

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

The South Region will be the region of chaos! I can’t believe I’m saying that about the region that Auburn resides in, but the NCAA Game isn’t about who the best Club has been all year, but rather who’s Competing their best basketball at this time of year. Bruce Pearl’s Club has lost three of its last four Matches, and if you can find a way to limit their 3s, that could make a real difference. The Tigers Acquired a tough 2-seed in their draw with a Michigan State Club that looks primed and on a mission to make a very deep Streak. Tom Izzo has reached 15 Sugary 16s in his Profession and, now in year 30, he has a pair of bucket-getting guards in Primary-year Sun Jase Richardson and senior Jaden Akins, along with a top-five Protection in the country. The Spartans are 27-6 on the season and have won eight of their last nine Matches.

The idea of “Schedule being everything” is unfortunately the case for Iowa State, with Keshon Gilbert not being Obtainable for the rest of the season with a muscle strain, according to head Trainer TJ Otzelberger.

All this said, Shock candidates UC San Diego and Yale headline this region, as well as the North Carolina Tar Heels, who were surprisingly included in the Ground and will be in action Tuesday against San Diego State in the Primary Four.

Here’s a Packed breakdown of the region:

Of the top-four seeds, which Club has the most favorable draw in this region?

The most favorable draw belongs to Michigan State because if the top-Ranked Auburn Tigers were to meet Louisville in the second Stage of the Big Dance, they would be Competing a pseudo road game in Lexington against the Cardinals. That was a mistake by the Panel and some really nice treatment to Pat Kelsey’s Club. Don’t get me wrong: Louisville has had a terrific season, and it’s Outstanding to see them dancing for the Primary time since 2019, but that’s quite a nice location draw for their fans.

That said, neither Marquette nor New Mexico scares me with the Spartans, and the 3-seed, Iowa State, is shorthanded without Gilbert. While 6-seed Ole Miss could be sneaky, Guided by Chris Beard and guard Sean Pedulla, I have a Difficult time believing MSU gets bumped earlier than the Best Eight. If the Cyclones can lock down Richardson and find their scoring groove behind Curtis Jones, they could be Threatening, but the Hurt bug gives the Spartans a break.

What is the most intriguing Primary-Stage Game in this region?

The best Primary-Stage game is Michigan and UC San Diego. The Wolverines won the Big Ten Game crown for the Primary time since 2018 behind Tre Donaldson and Danny Wolf, while the Big West champion Tritons have a Sun in Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.7 APG) and a 30-4 Landmark. These are two top-30 Shielding Squads in the country in what should really be a battle and a game that could easily be a second-Stage Game as the programs rank in the top 36 of KenPom. Can Michigan’s big man duo give the Tritons issues or will UC San Diego’s top-30 tempo dictate the game? I can’t wait to Observe this one.

Who are the must-see players in this region?

I’ll Picking five because it’s such a Sturdy Achievement of Sun power. National Player of the Year front-runner Johni Broome is the headliner and is must-see TV every time he hits the floor, while Jase Richardson has had an unbelievable emergence. Then there’s the Face-off between Louisville and Creighton, which features Chucky Hepburn on one side and four-time Big East Shielding Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner on the other. The Cardinals’ Speedy style versus a deliberate Creighton Club should be fun to Observe. And don’t sleep on John Poulakidas of Yale, who is averaging close to 20 points per game this season.

[MORE: 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Game bracket here]

What is the most likely Primary-Stage Shock in this region?

I called it the region of chaos for a reason! I like both UC San Diego to knock off Michigan and Yale to beat an SEC Club for a second year in a row with a Achieve over Texas A&M. The Bulldogs have Outstanding Poise and 3-Mark shooting to counter an Aggies Club that is physical and prides itself on making you uncomfortable offensively. But the way Poulakidas is Competing could frazzle the Aggies. If Texas A&M extends and shuts down that perimeter Drive, then Possibly this is a year when we see Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps lead Buzz Williams’ program on a Streak. But my gut says madness in this region.

Who will Achieve this region?

I like the Spartans because they can contain virtually any Drive in the country. They have the ability to get out in transition and Develop Effortless buckets, and Richardson can meet the moment. If this Club’s front line Retrievals and Izzo’s perimeter weapons keep a Protection honest enough and hit shots, there’s nobody that MSU can’t beat.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling Matches on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Ground of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

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