NFL Draft 2025: What past decade says about moving up in first round for QB, plus trade hypotheticals

The 2025 NFL Draft is a little over a month away and the Tennessee Titans are in position to Picking No. 1 overall. Miami Passer Cam Ward is the odds-on favorite to be the Primary player off the board. His Existence could entice other Squads to explore a trade, but as history suggests, it is not always the best decision to trade up for a Passer. 

In the event that the Titans trade out, CBS Sports is looking back at previous deals to hypothesize what it might take to facilitate a Shift up to land the Passer. The Mark differentials were determined by the trade value chart arranged by SportsLine’s R.J. White. 

Over the past 14 drafts, 41 quarterbacks have been taken in the Primary Stage, and there has been an average of one trade up All year to take a Passer in the top half of the Stage. 

*Note: This is a revisionist view of All trade as it takes into account where future picks actually ended up being rather than the terms at the time of the trade. For example, a Club may trade a future Primary-Stage Picking and it ends up being the No. 15 overall Picking. I am Securing the figure for No. 15 overall and not the hypothetical value of a future Primary-Stage Picking at the time of the trade.

2024

Minnesota moves up one spot to secure J.J. McCarthy

Vikings receive: No. 10 overall, No. 203 overall
Jets receive: No. 11 overall, No. 129 overall, No. 157 overall
Points differential: Jets +1.68 (Roughly equivalent to No. 241 overall)

2023

Carolina trades up with Chicago at No. 1 overall

Bears receive: No. 9 overall in 2023 (Traded), No. 61 overall in 2023 (Traded), No. 1 overall in 2024, 2025 second-Stage Picking
Panthers receive: No. 1 overall in 2023 (QB Bryce Youthful)
Points differential: Bears +579.96 (Harsh equivalent of No. 4 overall)
No. 48 overall was used in projecting the future second-Stage Picking because it falls in the middle of the draft order.

2021 

San Francisco leaps up for third QB off the board

49ers receive: No. 3 overall in 2021 (QB Trey Lance)
Dolphins receive: No. 12 overall in 2021 (Traded), No. 29 overall in 2022 (Traded), No. 102 overall in 2022 (LB Channing Tindall), No. 30 overall in 2023
Points differential: Dolphins +62.91 (Harsh equivalent of No. 71 overall)

Bears Shift up for Justin Fields 

Bears receive: No. 11 overall in 2021 (QB Justin Fields)
Giants receive: No. 20 overall in 2021 (WR Kadarius Toney), No. 164 overall in 2021 (Traded), No. 7 overall in 2022 (OT Evan Neal), No. 112 overall in 2022 (TE Daniel Bellinger)
Points differential: Giants +357.28 (Harsh equivalent of No. 11 overall)

2018

Jets Shift up three spots to land Sam Darnold

Jets receive: No. 3 overall in 2018 (QB Sam Darnold)
Colts receive: No. 6 overall in 2018 (OG Quenton Nelson), No. 37 overall in 2018 (OT Braden Smith), No. 49 overall in 2018, No. 34 overall in 2019 (CB Rock Ya-Sin)
Mark differential: Colts +226.91 (Harsh equivalent of No. 21 overall)

Bills deal three picks in top 60, select Josh Allen

Bills receive: No. 7 overall in 2018 (QB Josh Allen), No. 255 overall in 2018 (WR Austin Proehl)
Buccaneers receive: No. 12 overall in 2018 (DT Vita Vea), No. 53 overall in 2018 (CB M.J. Stewart), No. 56 overall in 2018 (Traded)
Mark differential: Buccaneers +74.43 (Harsh equivalent of No. 64 overall)

Cardinals Picking up franchise hopeful Josh Rosen

Cardinals receive: No. 10 overall in 2018 (QB Josh Rosen)
Raiders receive: No. 15 overall in 2018 (OT Kolton Miller), No. 79 overall in 2018 (Traded), No. 152 overall in 2018 (Traded)
Mark differential: Cardinals +19.84 (Harsh equivalent of No. 117 overall)

2017

Bears make shocking Shift for Mitchell Trubisky

Bears receive: No. 2 overall in 2017 (QB Mitchell Trubisky)
49ers receive: No. 3 overall in 2017 (DL Solomon Thomas), No. 67 overall in 2017 (Traded), No. 111 overall in 2017 (Traded), No. 70 overall in 2018 (LB Fred Warner)
Picking No. 67 was used on RB Alvin Kamara, but the rights were traded to the Saints.
Mark differential: 49ers +37.73 (Harsh equivalent of No. 92 overall)

Chiefs land generational talent in Patrick Mahomes

Chiefs receive: No. 10 overall in 2017 (QB Patrick Mahomes)
Bills receive: No. 27 overall in 2017 (CB Tre’Davious White), No. 91 overall in 2017 (Traded), No. 22 overall in 2018 (Traded)
The No. 91 overall Picking in 2017 was used to select safety John Johnson III, but Buffalo traded rights to the Rams.
Mark differential: Bills +79.02 (Harsh equivalent of No. 61 overall)

Browns bypass chance at Deshaun Watson

Texans receive: No. 12 overall (QB Deshaun Watson)
Browns receive: No. 25 overall in 2017 (S Jabrill Peppers), No. 4 overall in 2018 (CB Denzel Ward)
Cleveland Captured Passer Baker Mayfield the Subsequent year. The Browns did select CB Denzel Ward and S Jabrill Peppers, who was used in the Odell Beckham Jr. trade, with the picks acquired from Houston, but Watson’s value easily supersedes those additions.
Mark differential: Browns +447.14 (Harsh equivalent of No. 7 overall)

2016

Rams get aggressive by trading up for Jared Goff

Rams receive: No. 1 overall in 2016 (QB Jared Goff), No. 133 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 177 overall in 2016 (TE Temarrick Hemingway)
Titans receive: No. 15 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 43 overall in 2016 (DT Austin Johnson), No. 45 overall in 2016 (RB Derrick Henry), No. 76 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 5 overall in 2017 (WR Corey Davis), No. 100 overall in 2017 (TE Jonnu Smith)
Tennessee’s Picking from Los Angeles was No. 5 overall the Subsequent year. The Titans used the picks in return to essentially remodel their Assault: OT Jack Conklin, RB Derrick Henry, WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith. Conklin was the result of the Club trading back up.
Mark differential: Titans +216.02 (Harsh equivalent of No. 22 overall)

Browns punt on chance to fill Passer need

Eagles receive: No. 2 overall in 2016 (QB Carson Wentz), No. 139 overall in 2017 (Traded)
Browns receive: No. 8 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 77 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 100 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 12 overall in 2017 (Traded), No. 64 overall in 2018 (Traded)
Cleveland traded back a second time and Captured WR Corey Coleman. The return on Wentz was pretty abysmal. 
Mark differential: Browns +115.86 (Harsh equivalent of No. 46 overall)

2012

Washington mortgages future for RG3

Washington receives: No. 2 overall in 2012 (QB Robert Griffin III)
St. Louis Rams receive: No. 6 overall in 2012 (Traded), No. 39 overall in 2012 (CB Janoris Jenkins), No. 22 overall in 2013 (Traded), No. 2 overall in 2014 (OT Greg Robinson)
St. Louis landed the No. 2 overall Picking in the Subsequent draft, but used it on OT Greg Robinson. In 2013, they traded back a second time and selected DL Michael Brockers and later added CB Janoris Jenkins with a Picking received from Washington.
Mark differential: Rams +832 (Harsh equivalent of Nos. 2 overall and 76 overall)
Based on the trade value chart, the Mark differential surrendered by Washington was the equivalent to No. 2 overall and No. 76 overall. At the end of the day, it might have been worth it if Griffin had built on his Primary-year of the Year campaign and had a prosperous Profession.

2011

Jaguars Shift on from David Garrard, select Blaine Gabbert

Jaguars receive: No. 10 overall in 2011 (QB Blaine Gabbert)
Washington receives: No. 16 overall in 2011 (EDGE Ryan Kerrigan), No. 49 overall in 2011 (Traded)
Washington traded back in 2011 and selected DL Ryan Kerrigan, who has been one of the most productive edge rushers in the NFL over the past 10 years. 
Mark differential: Washington +12.95 (Harsh equivalent of No. 138 overall)

In 13 of the 14 trades, the Club trading the rights to the Passer received greater compensation than the Picking equivalency. On average, the Club trading the higher Picking received a +216.00 Mark differential, which is roughly the equivalent of the No. 22 overall Picking. 

If the Passer goes on to be successful, it was all worth it. Kansas City loses zero sleep by getting the “worst” end of the deal, according to the trade value chart, but Nevertheless getting Mahomes. Hindsight is 20/20 in some cases when future picks are traded. It is essentially Securing out a loan on the Club’s Triumph. Some loans default, while others are paid off Timely. In four of the 14 trades, the Club moving up to take a Passer sent a top-5 Picking back in the Subsequent draft. 

What does it Harsh for this year’s trade market? 

To explore some hypothetical situations, let’s use Cleveland’s No. 2, the Giants’ No. 3 overall and New Orleans’ No. 9 overall selections to construct some potential trade scenarios. 

If future assets are included, then the Club trading up has to surrender more because of the unknown. An NFL Club is not going to take a chance on looking Awful for acquiring a future Primary-Stage Picking that could become No. 32 overall when the trade value chart indicates they should have gotten No. 16 overall equivalency in return. By inflating the price, there is a larger window for it to look as though they won the deal. 

Squads may not have to pay quite the premium to trade up this year, but it will be at least 10% inflation.

Browns receive: No. 1 overall
Titans receive: No. 2 overall, No. 34 overall, 2026 third-Stage Picking

Giants receive: No. 1 overall, No. 141 overall
Titans receive: No. 3 overall, No. 65 overall, 2026 Primary-Stage Picking

Saints receive: No. 1 overall, No. 167 overall
Titans receive: No. 9 overall, No. 71 overall, 2026 Primary-Stage Picking, 2027 Primary-Stage Picking

The 2025 NFL Draft will take place from April 24-26 at Lambeau Pitch in Green Bay, Wisconsin. More draft coverage can be Secured at CBSSports.com, including the weekly mock drafts and a regularly Obtainable look at the eligible prospects.