The final Sunday of the year features an eclectic group of games, including five divisional contests, four favorites of at least a touchdown, and one matchup of rookie quarterbacks. No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are favored by four points in the Week 17 NFL odds, over No. 8 pick Michael Penix and the Falcons. Before that, however, a pair of veteran quarterbacks in Jordan Love and Sam Darnold will face off in Packers vs. Vikings (+1, 48.5). It may not help your straight-up NFL bets to know that this series is deadlocked 10-10-1 over the last 21 meetings, but there are NFL betting trends that could assist with Week 17 NFL picks against the spread.
Green Bay is coming off a MNF appearance, and this will be its first game of the year in which it has less rest than its opponent. The Packers went 1-3 against the spread (ATS) with a rest disadvantage in 2023, while Minnesota’s 10-4-1 ATS record this year is the second-best in the league. All of the updated Week 17 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 17 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season on a 28-12 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, a stunning 70% success rate. Longer term, it is on a 208-140 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 62-33 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 17 NFL odds and NFL betting lines and locked in betting picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 17 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 17 NFL picks is that the Browns (+6.5, 40) cover the spread at home against the Dolphins. Being at home is important to note as Miami notoriously struggles in cold weather. Tua Tagovailoa is 0-8 in his NFL career when the temperature is 45 degrees or lower, and the Dolphins, as a whole, have struggled on the road, no matter the weather. They have lost four of their last five road games, and they’ve failed to cover in three of their last four games overall.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson being inserted under center for Cleveland on Sunday led to the team having a season-high of 148 rushing yards. It marked the third straight game that the Browns had at least 104 rushing yards, so the Browns are finding success on the ground even with Nick Chubb out for the year. That’s a bad omen for Miami which is 2-6 both straight-up and against the spread when it allows 94 or more rushing yards. The model has Cleveland prevailing versus the spread well over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 17 NFL predictions: the 49ers (+3.5, 50.5) cover at home versus the Lions. San Francisco was eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16, so it’s fair to question its motivation entering this game. However, the last time the Niners missed the playoffs, in 2020, they had a similar scenario in which they were eliminated from contention with two games left in the season. Despite no playoff incentive in front of them, the 49ers covered in those last two games of that season as underdogs in both. So, Kyle Shanahan has a track record of getting his team ready to play, even when it’s playing out the string.
Meanwhile, Detroit has lost versus the spread in three of its last four games. David Montgomery’s (knee) injury could become evident on Monday as the Niners own the No. 3 passing defense, so with the air game taking care of, they can focus their attention on Jahmyr Gibbs and stopping Detroit’s run game. Additionally, the Niners have had nearly unprecedented domination over the Lions in San Francisco as the 49ers are riding a 14-game home win streak over Detroit, including in the NFC Championship Game earlier this year. San Francisco covers over 50% of the time, per the model, which also says the Under hits in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 17 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 17 NFL schedule and just revealed three coveted A-rated spread picks, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four underdogs should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.
Week 17 NFL betting odds, lines, live spreads, scores
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Where to bet NFL games
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NFL games this week, along with the various NFL sportsbook promos they currently offer.