- The Chiefs’ running game needs to step up: Kansas City’s run game could be a deciding factor in this matchup. The Chiefs have struggled to generate explosive plays on designed runs all season, with their 5% explosive run rate ranking last in the NFL.
- Stopping the magic of Patrick Mahomes: The Eagles defense must be mindful of how Patrick Mahomes operates, both in the pocket and when he moves off his spot. In the regular season, only Jayden Daniels (176) had more dropbacks with movement inside the pocket than Patrick Mahomes (172). Since becoming a starter in 2018, no quarterback has moved off his initial dropback more than Mahomes, and he leads all quarterbacks with 50 touchdown passes after doing so.
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Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
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Kansas City Chiefs
The running game needs to step up
Kansas City’s run game could be a deciding factor in this matchup. The Chiefs have struggled to generate explosive plays on designed runs all season, with their 5% explosive run rate ranking last in the NFL.
Philadelphia has leaned heavily on light boxes on defense, using them on 62% of defensive snaps — the highest rate in the regular season. And against six or fewer defenders in the box this season, Kansas City’s run game has improved only slightly, increasing its explosive run rate to 8.5% — 31st in the league.
The Eagles allowed an above-average explosive run rate of 14% when using light boxes during the regular season. But in the playoffs, their run defense has tightened significantly, as they have allowed just four explosive runs on designed plays — a 6% explosive run rate, the second-lowest among all postseason defenses.
A receiving corps that has thrived after the catch
If the run game struggles, the Chiefs will need their pass-catchers to step up and make plays. During the regular season, Kansas City averaged 5.9 yards after the catch per reception, ranking sixth-best among all offenses. That number has jumped to 7.1 yards after the catch per reception in the playoffs, the second-highest mark among the 14 postseason teams.
One key area where Mahomes’ receivers have thrived is on intermediate throws (10-19 yards downfield). In the playoffs, they have averaged a dominant 12.6 yards after the catch per reception on these passes, making them especially dangerous when attacking defenses in the middle of the field.
Beware of A.J. Brown against man coverage
With Jaylen Watson returning to play opposite Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs have leaned heavily on man coverage on the outside. Among all defenders with at least 50 coverage snaps this postseason, McDuffie ranks first in man coverage rate (59%), while Watson ranks second (55%).
McDuffie has been difficult to complete passes against, leading all defenders this postseason with four forced incompletions. Meanwhile, Watson has been just as stingy in coverage, allowing only two catches for 8 yards on four targets.
However, they’ll face one of their toughest challenges yet in A.J. Brown, who has dominated against man coverage all season. Including the playoffs, Brown leads all qualified pass-catchers in yards per route run against man (4.04) and ranks second in target rate (37%), making him a serious threat to Kansas City’s defensive game plan.
The peerless Chris Jones
Where Chris Jones lines up on key third downs will be a major factor in this matchup. During the regular season, he lined up outside the tackle on 41% of third-down snaps, a number that has jumped to 55% in the playoffs. His 22% pass-rush win rate from that alignment ranks third in the NFL over the full season, trailing only Aidan Hutchinson and Myles Garrett.
However, in his last two matchups against the Eagles, Jones rarely rushed from the edge, lining up outside the tackle on just 5 of 27 third-down snaps. That may have been a strategic decision, as Philadelphia’s biggest strength is its offensive tackle duo.
This postseason, the Eagles’ pass-blocking has been strong on the outside, with the tackle duo putting up an 81.4 PFF pass-blocking grade. But it’s been a different story on the interior — their guards and center have combined for just a 48.4 pass-blocking grade, which could factor into where Jones attacks most often in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley will take center stage
The Eagles run one of the most diverse rushing attacks in the league, mixing zone, man and pulling concepts.
Saquon Barkley has been especially dominant on zone runs this postseason, racking up three scores and 260 yards on 36 carries (7.2 yards per carry). In contrast, he has been far less effective on man-blocking runs, managing just one touchdown and 40 yards on 12 carries (3.3 yards per carry).
The Chiefs defense has been tough against zone runs all season, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per carry (3.7 yards per carry). However, they have struggled against man runs in the playoffs, surrendering 6.3 yards per carry, which could present an opportunity for Philadelphia’s ground game to exploit.
Jalen Hurts should also have opportunities to make improvised plays with his legs against a Chiefs defense that has given up 55 rush attempts for 425 yards and 26 conversions on quarterback scrambles, all of which lead the league. Hurts was effective on scrambles during the regular season, averaging 9.6 yards per carry with a 53% conversion rate, but those numbers have dropped to 6.2 yards per carry and a 20% conversion rate this postseason. Over his past two matchups against the Chiefs, Hurts has only scrambled 3 times, gaining 17 yards.
Stopping the magic of Patrick Mahomes
The Eagles defense must be mindful of how Patrick Mahomes operates, both in the pocket and when he moves off his spot. In the regular season, only Jayden Daniels (176) had more dropbacks with movement inside the pocket than Patrick Mahomes (172). Since becoming a starter in 2018, no quarterback has moved off his initial dropback more than Mahomes, and he leads all quarterbacks with 50 touchdown passes after doing so.
Philadelphia’s defense, however, hasn’t faced many quarterbacks who move frequently. The Eagles saw just 113 such dropbacks in 2024, tied for the eighth-fewest in the league. When opponents did move, Vic Fangio’s coverage unit allowed a 107.9 passer rating — the eighth-highest in the NFL — and surrendered five touchdown passes, tied for seventh-most.
Brandon Graham is hoping for a storybook ending
The potential return of Brandon Graham could give Philadelphia a much-needed boost against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing attack. The veteran edge defender has delivered on the biggest stage before, earning an elite 90.4 overall grade in Super Bowl 52, in which he recorded seven total pressures in the Eagles’ win over the Patriots.
Graham’s impact was limited in Super Bowl 57 against Kansas City, as he failed to register a single pressure on 11 pass-rush snaps. Now, as Philadelphia’s longest-tenured player, he could have another shot at disrupting Mahomes. His 20 total pressures in the regular season tied for sixth-most on the team, and if active, he could play a key role in this championship rematch.
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