Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season began with everyone — excluding the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs and the Lamar Jackson-led Baltimore Ravens — looking like they had a holiday hangover.
However, a number of the NFL postseason seeds remain up for grabs. With that in mind, let’s take a look at five year-end CBS Sports NFL bold predictions for the 2024 season’s penultimate week.
Jets shock Bills, hand Buffalo first home loss of 2024
The Buffalo Bills (12-3) played with fire in their 24-21 home win over the New England Patriots (3-12) in Week 16. They fell behind 14-0, and NFL MVP candidate quarterback Josh Allen struggled to throw the ball all day long, finishing with just 154 yards passing, a touchdown and an interception on 16 of 29 passing. Buffalo needed its defense to score a touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone in order to score any points in the fourth quarter.
If the Bills play anywhere close to that again, they will lose at home for the first time in eight outings this season against the New York Jets (4-11) on Sunday. They won’t play as bad as they did in Week 16, but the Bills will lose to Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Sunday. Even though New York’s offense has struggled this season, Rodgers remains a top-10 quarterback in touchdown-to-interception ratio (24-8, tied for ninth in the league). If Patriots rookie third overall pick quarterback Drake Maye can find holes against Buffalo’s defense, the 20-year veteran quarterback certainly can too while throwing to Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. Rodgers is sporting the third-fastest average time to throw this season (2.76 seconds), and the Bills are allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt on quick passes this season (5.0), according to NFL Pro. Advantage Rodgers.
On the other side of the ball, New York has two players inside the top 30 in the NFL in quarterback pressure entering Week 17: edge rusher Will McDonald IV (54, tied for 19th) and All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (50, tied for 29th). Those two will swarm Allen with regularity and limit the damage he can do. The Bills barely won this matchup in Week 6, 23-20, in a game the Jets missed two field goals in the second half. This time, they won’t be as fortunate as they lose a close one to a Jets team that has been riding the struggle bus this season.
Panthers play Grim Reaper for second week in row, deal massive blow to Buccaneers’ postseason dreams
The Carolina Panthers (4-11) will successfully play Grim Reaper to another team’s playoff hopes for the second week in a row in Week 17. In Week 16, they shocked the Arizona Cardinals in a 36-30 overtime win that eliminated Kyler Murray and Co. from postseason contention. They’ll stun the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) to continue the trend in Week 17.
These two teams played an overtime contest in Week 13, one Tampa Bay escaped with a 26-23 victory. They won’t be so lucky this time. Panthers head coach Dave Canales has 2023 first overall pick quarterback Bryce Young playing some of the best football of his young career: Young registered his first game this season with multiple passing touchdowns (two) and no interceptions in the Week 16 win over the Cardinals. Carolina running back Chuba Hubbard possesses the sixth-most rushing yards in the entire NFL (1,195) entering Week 17, and he’s the first Panther with 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Christian McCaffrey in 2019.
Tampa Bay is fresh off a disappointing 26-24 road loss at the Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, and if Rush can find holes in the Buccaneers’ secondary, so can Young.
Bengals beat first team with winning record to hand Broncos their first loss against a .500 or worse team this season
The Denver Broncos (9-6) can clinch their first postseason berth since 2015, when they won Super Bowl 50 in Hall of Famer Peyton Manning’s last season, with a win or a tie in Cincinnati against the Bengals (7-8) on Saturday. One of the things that has powered Denver to the precipice of the playoffs — on top of rookie first-round pick quarterback Bo Nix leading a top-10 scoring offense (24.2 points per game, 10th in 2024) and their top-five scoring defense (18.7 points per game allowed, fourth in 2024) — is their dominance against losing teams: they’re 7-0 against teams with a .500 or worse record.
On the flip side, one of the crucial things that has held the Bengals back this season is their struggles against teams with winning records: they’re 0-7 against teams with a record over .500 in 2024. That makes Cincy one of four teams who are winless against winning teams this season along with the Carolina Panthers (4-11), the New England Patriots (3-12) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12).
However, the Bengals break out of their rut against winning teams and secure a critical win to keep their playoff hopes alive entering Week 18. NFL passing touchdowns (39) and passing yards leader (4,229) Joe Burrow and current NFL receiving triple crown holder Ja’Marr Chase — who leads the NFL outright in catches (108), receiving yards (1,510) and receiving touchdowns (16) — will topple Denver’s stout defense. Burrow is on an all-time heater with an NFL-record streak of seven consecutive games with at least 250 yards and at least three passing touchdowns, and he will face a Broncos defense that is slipping at the wrong time: allowing 30 or more points in two of its last three games after only doing so once in its first 12 games.
Sure, Broncos All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II is allowing a passer rating against of 39.1, which is lower than if a quarterback threw it into the ground on every pass, 39.6. Whichever Bengals wideout between Chase and Tee Higgins he isn’t guarding will beat Denver’s secondary in tandem with Burrow’s precision passing. Cincy finally wins its first game versus a team with a winning record against one of the NFL’s best defenses.
Cowboys hold Eagles’ Saquon Barkley to under 100 rush yards for second time this season
The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the NFL’s most ferocious defenses since their three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons returned from a high ankle sprain in Week 10. His impact — he leads the NFL in sacks (8.5) and quarterback pressures (42) — since Week 10 is undeniable. He along with the rest of the Dallas defensive front pull off a rare feat in Week 17: limit 2024 NFL rushing yards leader Saquon Barkley (1,838) to under 100 yards rushing for the second time this season. They did so the first time in Week 10 — Parsons’ first game back — by holding him to 66 rushing yards on 14 carries.
With Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts suffering a concussion in the team’s Week 17 loss at the Washington Commanders, the Cowboys will be able to load the box against Kenny Pickett and Barkley and pull off a rare feat.
|
3rd-Down Conversion Rate Allowed |
35% |
5th |
|
Sacks |
28 |
1st |
| Sack Rate | 10.4% | 1st |
|
QB Pressure Rate |
39.3% |
5th |
|
Takeaways |
15 |
T-2nd |
Anthony Richardson completes over 75% of his passes for first time in career at Giants
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is the NFL’s most volatile passer. His 47.7% completion percentage is the lowest in a season since fellow ex-Florida Gator Tim Tebow’s 46.5% back in 2011, and it’s also the third-lowest in a season in the 21st Century, minimum 10 games started — per CBS Sports Research. However, Richardson does lead the league in yards per completion (14.4).
He’s completed 50% or fewer of his passes in five of his last seven starts, but despite his boom-or-bust style, Richardson will set a career high in completion percentage on Sunday. The 2-13 New York Giants secondary is allowing a 69.8% opponent completion percentage, which is the third-highest in the entire league. That’s a recipe for Richardson to stop his run of inefficiency, at least for a short while.