When the Steelers and Ravens kick off on Saturday, it will be 1,903 days since Lamar Jackson’s one and only victory over Pittsburgh as Baltimore’s starting quarterback. For all of his success so far, the two-time league MVP is 1-4 against the Ravens’ chief rival.
Despite that, Jackson and the Ravens are a decided favorite for their Week 17 showdown against the Steelers in a game that could be remembered as the de facto AFC North division title game. Pittsburgh (10-4) currently has a one-game lead over Baltimore (9-5) and would win the division if the two teams finish the year with the same record by virtue of the Steelers’ better record against conference foes.
Baltimore’s most recent bye is probably one of the reasons why it is favored in this game. The Ravens are a vasty fresher team that the Steelers, who are in the middle of an 11-day, three-game gauntlet. Baltimore also has Jackson, and despite his past struggles against Pittsburgh, his immense talent and ability with the football in his hands makes him hard to pick against.
Here’s how you can follow the action on Saturday, along with a full breakdown and a prediction for how things might play out.
Where to watch Ravens vs. Steelers
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 21 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
- TV: Fox | Stream: fubo
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Ravens -6.5, OU 45.5
When the Steelers have the ball
Pittsburgh’s offense is an enigma. Over the past six games, the unit has scored at least 27 points three times but less than 20 points three other times. The offense bottomed last week last, gaining just 163 total yards in a 27-13 loss to the Eagles. The Steelers had the ball for just over 20 minutes and had just two second half possessions.
George Pickens’ absence was felt in Philadelphia, and it probably will be again on Saturday as Pickens will miss a third straight game with his hamstring injury. The Steelers’ offense will need more from fellow wideouts Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson. Both wideouts have made big plays this year, but they’ll have to produce on a more consistent basis on Saturday if the Steelers are going to be successful.
Pittsburgh’s offense also needs more from its offensive line. The unit was thoroughly outplayed by the Eagles last Sunday, especially in run blocking, as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined to run for a meager 26 yards on 10 carries. Pittsburgh’s lack of a running game created obvious third down passing situations for Russell Wilson, who completed nearly 64% of his throws but averaged a season-low 5.82 yards per pass attempt.
Yes, the Steelers’ passing game needs to carry their weight. But this game is going to come down to whether or not Harris and Warren can make an impact on the ground. The Steelers are surely hoping that Harris mimics his previous late-season success over the season’s final three weeks. Harris had over 100 rushing yards and the game-winning score in Baltimore late in the 2022 season. He rushed for 312 yards and four touchdowns in Pittsburgh’s final three games of the 2023 season.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, Baltimore boasts the NFL’s top-ranked run defense, led by All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike. The Ravens allowed the Steelers to run for 122 yards back in Week 11, but the Steelers needed 34 carries to get there. It’ll be interesting to see if Pittsburgh is as patient with its running game on Saturday (they likely will be).
With Pickens out, expect the Ravens to crowd the line of scrimmage in an attempt to shut down the running game while forcing Wilson to beat them with his arm. Wilson will likely counter with play-action and quick passes to try to keep Baltimore’s defense at bay. Eventually, though, Wilson will need to test Baltimore’s defense deep with one of his patented moon balls. That would help open things up underneath and for Pittsburgh’s backs.
Making this difficult is Ravens defensive backs Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey. Hamilton is a hard-nosed player who seems to embrace contact. Humphrey is a cagey cornerback who has a history of making momentum-changing plays. Like most quarterbacks have, expect Wilson to try to avoid both players while instead throwing in the directions of cornerback Brandon Stephens and safety Ar’Darius Washington.
Let’s circle back to Pittsburgh’s offense for a second. This is Ravens-Steelers, after all, and given the physical nature of this rivalry, expect the Steelers to employ multiple tight end sets early and often as offensive coordinator Arthur Smith looks to win the war of attrition. That means that the Ravens will be seeing a lot of Darnell Washington, the Steelers’ 6-7, 265-pound tight end who is a defensive back’s worst nightmare in the open field. Expect FB/TE hybrid Connor Heyward to get increased reps, too.
When the Ravens have the ball
It may not be the “Jordan Rules,” but the Steelers definitely have a proven blueprint when it comes to minimizing Jackson’s impact on a game. Jackson’s worst game of the year occurred in Pittsburgh. He was just 16 of 33 passing with one touchdown and one pick, although the pick was more of an incredible play by rookie linebacker Payton Wilson than a bad play by Jackson.
“For the back end, just plaster your guy,” Steelers cornerback Beanie Bishop Jr. told CBS Sports after that game when asked about facing Jackson. “It’s kind of like playing street ball. Guys are moving around trying to get open, not really having too many routes, obviously, because he’s scrambling. For the rush guys, keep him in front of you, and inside you’re going to have help and other guys coming.”
Baltimore is receiving yet another MVP-caliber season from Jackson. You could argue that Jackson is having his best season, which is certainly saying something. The 27-year-old signal caller is leading the NFL in several passing categories, including touchdown-interception ratio, yards per attempt and quarterback rating. Oh yeah, he is also averaging a league-best 6.4 yards-per-carry.
There were few a few notable takeaways from Baltimore’s first game vs. Pittsburgh that Jackson and Co. will try to remedy on Saturday.
Jackson was only sacked twice in that game, but he was under duress for most of the game, which hampered his accuracy and effectiveness as a passer. Jackson also seemed hesitant to run; he rushed just four times for 46 yards. Jackson had a nifty 25-yard early in the fourth quarter, but he didn’t attempt another run for the remainder of the game.
Derrick Henry, who has enjoyed a standout first season in Baltimore, had a rare off game in Pittsburgh. He gained 65 yards on 13 carries, but 31 of those yards came on one play. He also had a fumble on the game’s first drive that led to the first of Chris Boswell’s six field goals.
Look for the Ravens to get Henry more involved on Saturday. The Ravens intentionally put him on a pitch count so that he could be fresh and available for the stretch run. You can also expect the Ravens to make some adjustments to their pass protection in an effort to contain T.J. Watt and the rest of Pittsburgh’s pass rusher. Don’t be surprised if the Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken calls a screen pass or two to Justice Hill, the Ravens’ speedy running back who has made several big plays in the passing game this year. The Steelers struggled against Kenneth Gainwell — a similar back — last week in Philadelphia.
Watt will play despite injuring his ankle against the Eagles. But the Steelers will likely be without starting safety DeShon Elliott and could be without starting cornerback Donte Jackson and starting defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi. If Jackson plays, expect Lamar Jackson to test his back injury. If Jackson sits, expect Lamar to go after his backup, James Pierre, a former undrafted rookie who made a big pick late in Pittsburgh’s Week 14 win over Cleveland.
Two things worth keeping an eye on when Baltimore has the ball. First, the matchup between Zay Flowers and Joey Porter Jr. should be high quality viewing. Flowers has proven to be a an explosive playmaker for Jackson. Porter has blossomed into a promising No. 1 corner, but his over aggressiveness can lead to some penalties. Porter had a game-clinching pick against Jackson and the Ravens back in 2023; look for Jackson to try to get some payback on Saturday.
Speaking of Jackson, for as good as he’s been, he seems to always come up short against the Steelers and in the postseason. Part of the reason why may be his possible need to prove that he’s an elite passer that often leads to him abandoning one of his greatest assets: his feet. Jackson is the greatest rushing quarterback of all-time (he’s 109 yards from passing Michael Vick with the most rushing yards by a QB in league history). John Harbaugh would be wise to remind him of that fact during pregame warmups.
Will Jackson’s pride get in the way on Saturday, or will he do whatever is necessary to engineer victory? The answer may not only determine Saturday’s outcome, it could be a foreshadowing of things to come for Jackson and Co. this January.
Prediction
This is a statement game for both teams. For Baltimore, it’s a chance to turn the page after they got in their own way far too often during the season’s first 13 games. For the Steelers, they have an opportunity to win the North while re-establishing themselves as a legitimate threat to come out of the AFC following last week’s loss in Philly.
Beyond storylines, though, there are tangible reasons to go with the Steelers. They’ve played more fundamentally sound football this year, they have a running back in Harris who has a history of performing well vs. Baltimore, a defense that is just as good if not better than Baltimore’s, and a clear advantage in the kicking game with Boswell.
A fast start may determine the outcome of this game. If Pittsburgh’s offense starts out slow again, and its defense can’t keep them in the game, the Ravens may end their recent skid vs. the Steelers. But if Wilson and the offense can get some points on the board early, Pittsburgh fans might be adding division championship merch to their Christmas wishlists come Saturday night.
Score: Steelers 21, Ravens 20
Bonus: SportsLine Mike Tierney, who is on a 53-23-2 roll on Ravens games, has released his best bets for the Week 16 Ravens vs. Steelers matchup. Tierney is leaning Under on the total, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.