Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich Premier League problems reflect broader struggles for promoted Championship sides | Football News

Is it getting harder for promoted teams to survive in the Premier League? Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich are on course for a raft of unwanted records…

Leicester suffered their 10th defeat in 11 games, losing 2-0 at West Ham on Thursday with a whimper. The Saints have lost nine of their previous 10 games, while Ipswich have lost six of their previous seven.

According to Opta, the Saints’ fate is sealed already, with the Foxes’ chances of survival down to just 2.4 per cent and Kieran McKenna’s side on 3.4 per cent.

Southampton are still fighting to avoid becoming the worst team in Premier League history. Currently, Ivan Juric’s side are on course to register 13 points – two points more than the current unwanted record held by Derby in 2007/08.

The table below shows how many of the three promoted teams have survived every season since 1996/97, revealing how two or more sides frequently avoided the drop until around 2013/14 – except for a period between 2004 and 2008.

However, more than one team has survived only four times in the past 10 seasons and this campaign could be the first time all three promoted sides are relegated in back-to-back campaigns – after Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton all suffered the drop last term.

The chart below converts those survival rates into a rolling, five-year average and – lo and behold – this season will have the lowest average survival rate over that period if all three promoted sides suffer the drop.

Based on current point ratios, the promoted teams will collect an all-time low of 61 combined points this term – with last season’s relegated trio holding the current record.

What about the age-old belief that a ‘magic 40 points’ is required for survival? The table below shows how that rang true in the early days – but teams have increasingly required fewer and fewer points to dodge the drop.

Again, convert those numbers into a five-year rolling average and teams now typically require closer to 30 points – an incremental drop of nearly eight points over the 30 years – equating to a 21-per-cent drop.

So, what’s the solution to the growing chasm promoted sides are increasingly struggling to overcome? Splashing huge sums of cash has certainly helped in the past.

The chart below plots every promoted team since 1995/96 against their net spend on transfers during the respective campaign – revealing a clear correlation between survival (teams in green) and high spending levels.

However, this season’s promoted sides (marked in blue) look set to break yet more unwanted records – with Ipswich becoming the most spendthrift promoted side to suffer immediate relegation.

Arguably, the Tractor Boys needed more investment after winning back-to-back promotions from League One. However, the Saints also registered more than £100m net spend; that sum also surpasses Fulham’s current record, set in 2018/19.

And the trio set their stalls out early, collectively splashing a record-breaking £315m in the summer window alone.

As the race for promotion in the Championship heats up, with Leeds, Sheffield United, Burnley, and Sunderland vying for automatic spots and numerous teams in the play-off mix, their chances of returning to the second tier next year seem increasingly likely.