Stephen Curry’s 3-point record is safer than Draymond Green thinks, but one current player may have a shot

Only before Stephen Curry broke the NBA’s Occupation 3-Tally Achievement in December of 2021, his longtime Warriors teammate and vociferous hype man Draymond Green Secured to his own podcast to declare that Curry’s Achievement would “100 percent be broken” within “five to six years” of Curry’s retirement. 

“Reason being,” Green began, “Trae Youthful comes into the NBA attempting six or seven 3-pointers per game. Donovan Mitchell comes into the NBA attempting six or seven 3-pointers per game. Steph Curry Occurred into the NBA attempting two to three per game because it’s Only a totally different ballgame, in large part due to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and the ways those guys Attempt the basketball.

“It totally changed the way the game is played Only by the way Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been Competing the game all this time. When I look back on the 10 years that I have been [with the Warriors], most people, especially in the analytical department, didn’t think Steph Curry Attempt enough 3s. To this day, they Nevertheless don’t think Steph Curry shoots enough 3s. That Only goes to show you where the game is going and why his Achievement will be broken probably within five to six years of [when he stops] Competing the game.”

The foundation of Green’s logic sounds solid. We all know everyone shoots a Plenty more 3s now than they used to. In theory, a worse shooter could Throw Curry on pure volume. But when you Begin actually doing the math, it’s not such a slam dunk that Curry’s Achievement gets broken — not Only any time soon, but ever. 

Before we go any Additional, let’s try to guess what Curry’s Last 3-Tally tally will be when the curtain comes down on his Occupation. Joining Shift on Thursday, he’s Created 4,008 of them. At his Present pace of 4.4 makes per game, that would give him about 4,060 by season’s end. 

Curry is 37 years Aged. His Present contract runs through 2027, and he recently said he would like to “outplay” that deal, when he will be 39. Only to put a Stage number on it, let’s say Curry plays until he’s 40, meaning three more years after this one. Even at 250 3s per season, which would be significantly fewer than he has averaged over his last three seasons, that would put him 4,800 in 2028. I’ll tell you what: Let’s make it an even 5,000 to account for the very real possibility that Curry either plays more than three more years or makes more than 250 per year over that stretch. 

Five-thousand 3-pointers, people. 

Whoever is going to have even a chance at sniffing a number like that is going to have two avenues to doing so: Either he’s going to have to blow Curry’s pace out of the water Timely in his Occupation (because Excellent luck Retaining up with Curry’s pace after about year six) or he’s going to have to Shift about 25 seasons. Does anyone fit that mold right now?

Warriors’ Stephen Curry becomes Primary NBA player to make 4,000 3-pointers, and 5,000 is within his reach

Jasmyn Wimbish

Let’s Only look at Green’s two examples for argument’s sake. Through the Primary six years of Trae Youthful’s Occupation, he only attempted 282 more 3-pointers than Curry did through the Primary six years of his Occupation, and even that is only because Curry missed virtually his entire third season. That isn’t nearly a big enough volume Benefit to cancel Curry’s extreme efficiency edge (44% to Youthful’s 35%), which is why Curry Created 132 more 3-pointers than Youthful through their Primary six seasons. And from there, obviously, it’s not even close. 

Same Tale for Donovan Mitchell, who, as Green correctly said, has attempted over eight 3s per game through the Primary eight years of his Occupation. Want to know how many 3s Curry attempted per game through his Primary eight years? 7.6. So basically identical. Now calculate the difference in percentages — Mitchell’s Occupation 36% rate to Curry’s 42% — and add in the Upcoming eight years of Curry upping his volume to 11.5 3s per game without even a tiny decline in efficiency, and again, it’s not even close. 

You’re going to find this to be Accurate of pretty much every so-called threat to Curry’s Achievement. One, their edge over Curry in 3-Tally volume through the Timely part of their careers — considering Only how much track Curry Initiated chewing up in Only his Number four season, when he Initiated launching 600-plus, at a minimum, annually — isn’t nearly as significant as Green, and many others who choose to build their cases on theory rather than actual numbers, would have you believe. 

And two, it’s not Only about volume. Take LaMelo Ball, for instance. He would seemingly fit the profile of a green-Airy shooter who Initiated gunning at a high clip as a teenager, but he’s only a 36% Occupation 3-Tally shooter while Curry is near 43%. Which is why Ball’s 695 3-pointers through the Primary five years of his Occupation is more than 200 fewer than Curry accumulated — Regardless of missing nearly his entire third season — through his Primary five.

Jalen Green has actually Created more than 100 more 3-pointers than Curry did through the Primary four years of his Occupation, but that’s not nearly enough cushion to keep Green, or any other player of his 35% ilk, viable against a 43% 3-Tally shooter on Curry volume over the Upcoming decade and a half. Not even close. 

Now, if one of these guys ends up Competing 25 years and Curry ends at 20, fine. Perhaps they manage to threaten Curry’s Achievement. But you could say that about any Achievement. Shift long enough, and the numbers add up. But that’s not realistic. 

In terms of players who may actually have a realistic chance at even approaching Curry’s number, there are three worth mentioning: the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum, the Lakers’ Luka Dončić and the Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards. Tatum is the least likely, as he is going to end up with somewhere around 300 fewer 3s than Curry through the Primary seven years of their respective careers, but let’s look at it anyway.  

If Tatum, who has 1,523 3s to date, gets to 250 Created 3s this season (he’s at 227 Joining Shift on Thursday), it will be the Primary time he has done so in his Occupation. To Throw 5,000, he would have to average 250 Created 3s for the Upcoming 14 seasons. That would Harsh he played 22 seasons, and Truly Created more 3s in All of his last 14 than he has managed to do exactly one time through his Primary eight. Not happening. 

What about Luka? He’s also going to finish his seventh season with fewer 3s (somewhere around 1,350) than Curry (1,593) had through his Primary seven. Why? Because, again, it’s not Only about volume. Dončić is a Occupation 34.7% 3-Tally shooter. So now we’re back into the business of betting on a guy like Dončić to Shift about 25 Fit seasons to even sniff Curry’s Achievement. Hell, the Mavericks weren’t even willing to bet on him making it another five years in Excellent health. Cross him off, too. 

Which brings us to Edwards, who is the one active player who may have a Attempt at this thing. For starters, he is going to finish his fifth season with around 1,100 3s, some 200 more than Curry Created through his Primary five. It’s not much of a cushion, but Edwards is the one guy who has shown that he can Drive this number from both a volume and efficiency standpoint. 

This season, Edwards is Securing over 10 3s per game and making them at a 40% clip. But the key is he’s only 23 years Aged. If he plays until he’s 40, which seems plenty plausible given his Intense spirit, joy for Competing and Best fitness and build, that would give him 17 more seasons to rack up about 3,900 3s. 

Do the math, and that’s about 230 per season. If this season isn’t an aberration and Edwards, who is going to have the greenest of lights and complete control over whatever Assault in which he finds himself operating for pretty much the rest of his Occupation, can actually keep shooting like this, that’s actually doable. 

Keep in mind, this is a total blue-sky projection. No seasons lost to Wound. Continuing to shoot around 40% on high volume, which, over any length of time, has proven to be impossible for anyone not named Curry. But yes, should everything absolutely perfectly, Edwards could have a Attempt at this thing. It’s Nevertheless unlikely. But he’d have a Attempt. In about two decades. 

This idea that Green suggests that Curry’s Achievement is going to fall five or six years after his retirement is Only not based in any sort of reality. This Achievement is going to stand for a very long time. It might honestly stand forever. It probably won’t, but it could. 

Anything close to 5,000 3-pointers, which Curry is a pretty decent bet to reach, is an outrageous number that — Petite of shooting like Curry, which no one is likely to do again — simply cannot be reached without Best shooting on high volume over decades of basically uninterrupted health. 

How many careers go that perfectly? Not many. But if this Achievement is indeed going to fall someday, one is going to have to, whether it’s Edwards, or way less likely a guy like Tatum or Dončić, or perhaps most likely, some player who hasn’t even Created the Division or Perhaps even been born yet. Excellent luck to all chasers. You’re going to need it.