Super Bowl LIX: Odds, predictions and betting tips for Eagles v Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs look to make history on Sunday night by completing an unprecedented “threepeat” when they once again take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL’s showpiece event.

The matchup is a repeat of the 2023 “Kelce Bowl” when brothers Travis and Jason Kelce played on opposite sides.

Eagles vs Chiefs best bets

Jason may no longer be at centre for the Eagles, having retired at the end of last season, but the Eagles’ offensive line has remained dominant – making for a devastating running game with the newly acquired Saquon Barkley.

They fly into New Orleans off the back of scoring 55 points on Washington two weeks ago – the most any team has racked up in a Championship Game.

For the Chiefs, progress has been more incremental. They’ve continued to lean on their defence, while star quarterback Patrick Mahomes perfects the art of methodically unpicking opponents and producing game-winning drives when it matters most.

Many NFL analysts expect big games from Barkley and Mahomes, but the Super Bowl has also often shone a light on lesser-known names – think Patriots undrafted cornerback Malcolm Butler, whose first career interception came on the goalline at the end of Super Bowl XLIX or Giants receiver David Tyree, who pulled off the improbable helmet catch in Super Bowl XLII to set up the game-winning score.

• Over 50.5 points scored in the game – 11/10 with Betfair
• Over 5.5 receptions for Xavier Worthy – 11/10 with BetMGM
• Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer – 5/6 with Paddy Power

Find more great offers at our best rated NFL betting sites.

Super Bowl LIX – Eagles v Chiefs odds

Find the latest odds for Super Bowl LIV, courtesy of Paddy Power. Odds are subject to change.

Winner	Odds
Philadelphia Eagles	4/5
Kansas City Chiefs	1/1

Total points	Odds
Over 47.5	21/20
Under 47.5	21/20

Eagles vs Chiefs preview

The 2023 Super Bowl was a shootout, decided by a Harrison Butker field goal in the last ten seconds. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts threw for over 300 yards, while Patrick Mahomes posted an efficient statline – completing 21 of his 27 passes for three touchdowns.

Hurts was also the Eagles’ leading rusher that day with 15 carries for 70 yards and three scores. It was a performance that earned him a mega payday – a five-year, $255 million contract extension was agreed just days after the game. Despite losing, Philly believed they’d found their new franchise quarterback.

There was to be no immediate return to the Big Game however, with the Eagles’ 2023/24 bid for the Lombardi hitting the buffers after week 12, culminating in a humbling loss to Tampa Bay in the wildcard round of the playoffs.

This season, however, has seen the birds return to being an NFC powerhouse with some key defensive additions such as Zack Baun in free agency, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the draft, and the aforementioned Barkley to fill their last offensive need.

Barkley has, in fact, transformed the Eagles into a run-first team. They rank number one in the NFL for rushing attempts and dead last in passing attempts, reducing Hurts to more of a “game manager” role.

The reinvigorated Barkley has had a season for the ages and was on course to break the all-time rushing record, until he was rested for the final regular season game. He’s also in the running for league MVP.

Good job for the Chiefs that they have one of the best defences against the run, having only allowed an average of 4.1 yards per carry, and only one 40+ yard run all season.

They did, however, struggle to contain both Joe Mixon and James Cook in their two playoff victories, who ran for 88 and 85 yards respectively. They’re also middle of the pack in terms of passing yards allowed.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs haven’t lit up the league like in past years. Mahomes, by his high standards, has put up modest stats.

For the first time in his career, he recorded under 4,000 passing yards, and 26 passing touchdowns represents a joint-lowest total in a season. Yet, time and again, when the game is close, he finds a way of ensuring Kansas City emerges on the right side of the scoreline – in fact, 11 of their 15 regular season wins were by one score.

Another reason why the Chiefs are so hard to beat, is that they rarely ever beat themselves. The botched handoff, resulting in a fumble, against the Buffalo Bills was their first turnover since the regular season meeting against the same opponents back on 17th November.

Playing an error-free game will be crucial against an Eagles defence which gave up the second fewest passing yards during the regular season, but is also fresh off creating four turnovers against the Washington Commanders – which massively contributed to the 32-point margin of victory.

Super Bowl LIV betting tips

The bookies appear to have learned their lesson after making Kansas City the underdogs against the 49ers last year. This time, they’re the 1.5 point favourites. Betting against Patrick Mahomes in a Super Bowl, or the playoffs in general, is generally not a wise idea. 

The only quarterback to beat him in the big game – Tom Brady – will be in the booth providing co-commentary for FOX. Brady has seven rings – more than anyone else in the history of the sport – having played well into his 40s. Mahomes is aiming for his fourth before he turns 30 years old. Jalen Hurts came very close two years ago, and will be hoping his stronger supporting cast can make the difference this time.

Over 50 points scored by both teams combined

A game like 2023 is probably more likely than the cagier chess match of last year, when the Chiefs and Mahomes triumphed in overtime over the San Francisco 49ers.

The Eagles are capable of scoring quickly and scoring heavily. It took just one offensive play against the Commanders for the first seven points to go on the board in the Championship Game.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs broke the 30-point barrier for the first time all season against the Bills. They should expect to have to match that feat here.

Two of the last three meetings between these two have also served up over 70 points – 73 in the aforementioned Super Bowl two years (Chiefs winning 38-35) and 72 when they clashed in October 2021 (a 42-30 victory for the Chiefs).

The Eagles did manage to avenge those losses last season with a 21-17 win at Arrowhead which brought the all-time series record back to within one – 6-5 in the Chiefs’ favour.

With what’s at stake, I would expect a slight uptick from that game and for a few more splash plays from both teams, with a turnover or two thrown into the mix.

🏈 Back both teams to combine for 50+ points at 11/10 with Betfair 🏈

Over 5.5 receptions for Xavier Worthy

In a year where the Chiefs lost promising rookie Rashee Rice for the most part to injury, no one has truly grasped the mantle of being their leading pass catcher.

Tight end Travis Kelce has once again led the team with 823 receiving yards, but next after him has been wide receiver Xavier Worthy with 638.

Given the Chiefs favour a more “dink and dunk” approach to moving the ball down the field these days, Worthy’s explosive speed comes in handy when they need to pick up vital first downs.

The rookie from the University of Texas has made at least five catches in each of the last seven games he’s played in, and you can expect to see flashes of his record-breaking 40-yard dash time (4.21 seconds) at last year’s NFL Scouting Combine. I would back him to get open often enough to catch six balls in this one.

🏈 Back Xavier Worthy to catch 6 passes against the Eagles defence at 11/10 with BetMGM 🏈

Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer

Hurts has 64 rushing touchdowns in just five seasons in the NFL, with many of those being the now-customary one- or two-yard “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” plays that the league simply cannot find a way to stop. Hurts crossed the goalline three times in Super Bowl LVII, each from within four yards or closer. He also pounded three into the Washington end zone a week ago. If the Eagles get into these short-range situations, you know what’s coming.

🏈 Bet on a goalline “Brotherly Shove” at 5/6 with Paddy Power 🏈

Super Bowl LIX game info

Date: Sunday 9th February
Time: 11:30pm GMT
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Where to watch: ITV1, ITVX, Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports NFL

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