If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve probably noticed a series of tweets I share on a weekly basis regarding player and team defensive performances, all from a fantasy lens. I’m going to be sharing some of that same information with you here. I use this each week as I am making my own lineup and waiver wire decisions and thought you might find this valuable as well.
We’ve made it! Welcome to Championship Week 2024! This is the week you have waited for and hopefully you are playing in multiple title games with a chance to bring home some hardware. We’re all about the matchups in this space and I want to focus on four players that could be the difference in winning and losing in this week’s championship battles.
Joe Burrow, QB CIN
No quarterback is playing at a higher level than the Bengals’ Burrow, who just became the first quarterback in league history to pass for 250+ yards and at least three touchdowns in seven straight games. With only two weeks remaining in the season, multiple teams are in a must-win position. Two of them are the Bengals and Broncos, who face off this week. Over the past five weeks, Denver’s defense has struggled, especially against the quarterback. They’ve allowed over 26 fantasy points per game, third-most in the league over that span. They’ve allowed a QB1 performance in four of their past seven contests, including Jameis Winston’s QB1 game in a shootout, which is just what we could see with these two teams.
Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
After a frustrating season, Colts’ back Taylor ran wild last week, rushing for over 200 yards and three touchdowns. His hot streak could continue against the Giants in Week Seventeen. Only two teams have allowed more top-24 performances to ball carriers than New York’s 15 and those season-long struggles have been magnified in recent weeks. The Giants are one of three teams giving up more than 30 fantasy points per game to running backs over the past five weeks. Knowing Taylor will see the overwhelming majority of work for the Colts, he has a chance to put up 25 fantasy points or more in a must-win game for Indy.
Romeo Doubs, WR GB
One of these things is not like the others! You’re obviously starting players like Burrow and Taylor with high expectations in your title game. While there are many elite wideouts in nice Week Seventeen matchups, the player I’m eyeing is Doubs, Jordan Love’s favorite receiver. In a division battle and with seeding still to be determined with two weeks left, the Packers will pull out all stops against the Vikings. Minnesota has excelled in slowing down running backs this season, which is bad news for Josh Jacobs. The Packers might be forced to throw the ball more and that means more Doubs. The Vikings have allowed a league-high 19 top-24 wideout performances this season and over the past five weeks, Minnesota has given up nearly 45 fantasy points per game to receivers, second-worst in the league.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
The Chiefs and their star tight end Kelce kick off the Christmas Day slate as they face the Steelers on the road. Pittsburgh has allowed seven TE1 games on the season, which tie them for tenth-worst in the league. The Steelers defense has hit a rough patch over the past few weeks though as they have given up 16.2 fantasy points per game, fifth-most in the league. With the Chiefs hoping to lock up the top seed in the AFC, Kelce should be very busy against the Steelers.
Note: The scoring system used is always PPR with four points for passing touchdowns and all stats and info are provided by Fantasy Data.
Week 16 QB1s
| Rank | Player | Fantasy Points Last Week |
|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Jayden Daniels, WAS | 34.40 |
| QB2 | Bryce Young, CAR | 27.10 |
| QB3 | Jared Goff, DET | 25.30 |
| QB4 | Patrick Mahomes, KC | 23.70 |
| QB5 | Sam Darnold, MIN | 22.90 |
| QB6 | Caleb Williams, CHI | 22.80 |
| QB7 | Baker Mayfield, TB | 22.30 |
| QB8 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 22.20 |
| QB9 | Joe Burrow, CIN | 22.00 |
| QB10 | Geno Smith, SEA | 21.40 |
| QB11 | Brock Purdy, SF | 21.10 |
| QB12 | Bo Nix, DEN | 21.00 |
Season-Long QB1s
| Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season |
|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Lamar Jackson, BAL | 378.00 |
| QB2 | Josh Allen, BUF | 356.10 |
| QB3 | Joe Burrow, CIN | 322.90 |
| QB4 | Jayden Daniels, WAS | 319.80 |
| QB5 | Jalen Hurts, PHI | 315.10 |
| QB6 | Baker Mayfield, TB | 309.60 |
| QB7 | Jared Goff, DET | 289.40 |
| QB8 | Sam Darnold, MIN | 275.50 |
| QB9 | Bo Nix, DEN | 261.80 |
| QB10 | Patrick Mahomes, KC | 257.00 |
| QB11 | Kyler Murray, ARI | 253.30 |
| QB12 | Caleb Williams, CHI | 237.00 |
Most QB1 Games This Season
| QB1 Games | Players |
|---|---|
| 12 | Lamar Jackson |
| 11 | Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow |
| 10 | Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts |
| 9 | Sam Darnold |
| 8 | Bo Nix |
Most QB1 Games Allowed
| QB1 Games Allowed | Team DSTs |
|---|---|
| 10 | JAX |
| 9 | TB |
| 8 | BAL, CAR, CLE, DAL, LV |
| 7 | ATL, HOU, KC, LAC, NYG, PHI, TEN |
| 6 | ARI, CHI, NYJ, SEA, WAS |
| 5 | CIN, DEN, DET, GB, IND, MIN, NE |
| 4 | LAR, MIA, NO |
| 3 | BUF, SF |
| 2 | |
| 1 | PIT |
The Jaguars have allowed a league-high ten QB1 games on the season. This week, they face AFC South foe Tennessee, who have turned to Mason Rudolph. Look, I can’t tell you to start Rudolph in your league title game, but I will just remind you of his historical significance this time of year.
Bryce Young put up a career-high 27.1 fantasy points last week and will have a chance to build on that strong performance against the Buccaneers’ soft pass defense. Tampa Bay has allowed nine QB1 games on the year and Young has averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game over the past seven weeks.
Over the past five weeks, six teams have allowed more than 24 fantasy points per game. These are clearly teams to target when searching for a quarterback and include the Cowboys (vs Jalen Hurts?), Lions (vs. Brock Purdy), Broncos (vs. Burrow), Steelers (vs. Patrick Mahomes) and Bills (vs. Aaron Rodgers.)
Other players with favorable matchups this week include CJ Stroud (vs. BAL), Baker Mayfield (vs. CAR), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. CLE), Spencer Rattler (vs. LV) and Bo Nix (vs. CIN).
It is interesting that two of the three teams to allow three or fewer QB1 games on the season also showed up on the above list of “trending down” teams. While the Steelers and Bills have excelled over the length of the season, they are starting to show some warts. Rodgers is likely not in play but Mahomes makes a fine fantasy starter this week.
Some quarterbacks I would be uneasy about starting due to their difficult matchup include Jared Goff (vs. SF), Kyler Murray (vs. LAR), Geno Smith (vs. CHI and Sam Darnold (vs. GB.) Low-end starters Dorian Thompson-Robinson (vs. MIA), Aidan O’Connell (vs. NO) and Cooper Rush (vs. PHI) also should be avoided, for multiple reasons.
Week 16 RB1s
| Rank | Player | Fantasy Points Last Week |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 | Jonathan Taylor, IND | 39.80 |
| RB2 | Chuba Hubbard, CAR | 32.50 |
| RB3 | De’Von Achane, MIA | 31.00 |
| RB4 | James Cook, BUF | 27.60 |
| RB5 | Saquon Barkley, PHI | 27.00 |
| RB6 | James Conner, ARI | 26.60 |
| RB7 | Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | 25.40 |
| RB8 | Bijan Robinson, ATL | 24.30 |
| RB9 | Jerome Ford, CLE | 24.10 |
| RB10 | Tyjae Spears, TEN | 21.60 |
| RB11 | Derrick Henry, BAL | 20.90 |
| RB12 | Josh Jacobs, GB | 20.70 |
Season-Long RB1s
| Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 | Saquon Barkley, PHI | 336.40 |
| RB2 | Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | 290.60 |
| RB3 | Bijan Robinson, ATL | 285.60 |
| RB4 | Derrick Henry, BAL | 281.80 |
| RB5 | De’Von Achane, MIA | 276.00 |
| RB6 | Alvin Kamara, NO | 265.30 |
| RB7 | Kyren Williams, LAR | 255.90 |
| RB8 | James Conner, ARI | 251.00 |
| RB9 | Josh Jacobs, GB | 249.90 |
| RB10 | James Cook, BUF | 246.60 |
| RB11 | Chase Brown, CIN | 241.90 |
| RB12 | Chuba Hubbard, CAR | 241.60 |
Most RB1 Games This Season
| RB1 Games | Players |
|---|---|
| 9 | Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook |
| 8 | Bijan Robinson, Chase Brown, De’Von Achane, Chuba Hubbard |
| 7 | Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs |
| 6 | Alvin Kamara, James Conner |
Most RB1/2 Games Allowed
| RB1/2 Games Allowed | Team DSTs |
|---|---|
| 18 | CAR |
| 17 | JAX |
| 16 | |
| 15 | NYG |
| 14 | ARI, GB, LAR, TEN |
| 13 | CHI, IND, LV, MIA, NE, NO, SF, TB |
| 12 | ATL, BUF, CIN, LAC, NYJ, WAS |
| 11 | DAL, DEN, PIT, SEA |
| 10 | BAL, CLE |
| 9 | DET, HOU |
| 8 | PHI |
| 7 | MIN |
| 6 | |
| 5 | KC |
The Panthers and Jaguars stand above the rest when it comes to giving it up to opposing running backs. The duo of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have each produced at a high level despite the competition they offer one another. Since Week Ten, Irving is the RB9, averaging 17.8 fantasy points per game, while White checks in as the RB17. Both are locked-in starters against the Panthers this week.
Another backfield duo has been excelling in recent weeks. While Tony Pollard has been slowed by an injury, Tyjae Spears has picked up the slack and both should fare well against the Jaguars in Week Seventeen.
Other running backs with plus matchups include Kyren Williams (vs. ARI), Aaron Jones (vs. GB), Tank Bigsby/Travis Etienne (vs. TEN) and Breece Hall (vs. BUF.) These will need to be monitored due to recent injuries, but whoever starts for the Cardinals and Seahawks also have matchups to target.
The Chiefs continue to stand alone as a running back defense, giving up five top-24 performances on the season. They face the duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren on Christmas Day. The duo has combined for just a pair of top-ten fantasy games all season.
Josh Jacobs (vs. MIN) and Derrick Henry (vs. HOU) are two of the top backs in the league but face difficult matchups this week. I can’t imagine benching either with a title on the line but expectations might need to be adjusted to the RB2 range for each back.
Other ball carriers with tough matchups this week include Rico Dowdle (vs. PHI) and Isaac Guerendo (vs. DET.)
Week 16 WR1s
| Rank | Player | Fantasy Points Last Week |
|---|---|---|
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson, MIN | 36.40 |
| WR2 | Keenan Allen, CHI | 29.10 |
| WR3 | Brian Thomas, JAX | 28.20 |
| WR4 | Jameson Williams, DET | 26.00 |
| WR5 | Deebo Samuel, SF | 25.10 |
| WR6 | Olamide Zaccheaus, WAS | 24.00 |
| WR6 (tie) | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | 24.00 |
| WR8 | AJ Brown, PHI | 23.70 |
| WR9 | Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | 22.40 |
| WR10 | Tank Dell, HOU | 21.80 |
| WR11 | Xavier Worthy, KC | 20.50 |
| WR11 (tie) | Kayshon Boutte, NE | 20.50 |
Season-Long WR1s
| Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season |
|---|---|---|
| WR1 | Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | 358.20 |
| WR2 | Justin Jefferson, MIN | 291.90 |
| WR3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | 282.50 |
| WR4 | CeeDee Lamb, DAL | 263.40 |
| WR5 | Terry McLaurin, WAS | 246.10 |
| WR6 | Brian Thomas, JAX | 242.80 |
| WR7 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | 241.50 |
| WR8 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 225.20 |
| WR9 | Drake London, ATL | 222.50 |
| WR10 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 220.10 |
| WR11 | Davante Adams, NYJ | 210.80 |
| WR12 | Jerry Jeudy, CLE | 207.20 |
Most WR1 Games This Season
| WR1 Games | Players |
|---|---|
| 9 | Ja’Marr Chase |
| 8 | |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson |
| 6 | AJ Brown |
| 5 | Brian Thomas, Mike Evans |
Most WR1/2 Games Allowed
| WR1/2 Games Allowed | Team DSTs |
|---|---|
| 19 | HOU, MIN |
| 18 | |
| 17 | |
| 16 | CLE |
| 15 | TB |
| 14 | ATL, BAL, CIN, DET, JAX |
| 13 | BUF, SEA |
| 12 | CAR, KC, LAR, PHI, PIT |
| 11 | DAL, GB, LAC, NO, TEN, WAS |
| 10 | ARI, CHI, DEN, IND, MIA, NE, NYJ |
| 9 | LV, SF |
| 8 | |
| 7 | |
| 6 | NYG |
The Texans and Vikings have each allowed an unreal 19 top-24 fantasy performances to opposing wideouts, three more than any other team in the league. That means an all hands on deck situation for their opponents, making Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman (vs. HOU) and Jayden Reed, along with the previously-mentioned Doubs Week Seventeen starters. If Christian Watson can’t go, Dontayvion Wicks could even be considered, though title contenders likely don’t need to dip that low.
Other wide receivers with matchups to target include Tyreek Hill (vs. CLE), Adam Thielen (vs. TB), Deebo Samuel/Jauan Jennings (vs. DET), Nico Collins (vs. BAL), Terry McLaurin (vs. ATL), Calvin Ridley (vs. JAX), Garrett Wilson/Davante Adams (vs. BUF) and AJ Brown/DeVonta Smith (vs. DAL.)
The Giants have somehow given up only six top-24 fantasy performances all season. This is mostly due to how poor their run defense has been but regardless, they are a team to avoid when it comes to wideouts. This week, that means Josh Downs and Michael Pittman can stay on the bench.
Like the running backs, there are a few superstar receivers with tough matchups this week. Keep them in your lineup, but don’t expect WR1 numbers from Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. SF), Brian Thomas (vs. TEN) and Justin Jefferson (vs. GB.)
Other receivers with poor matchups include Jameson Williams (vs. SF), Amari Cooper/Keon Coleman/Khalil Shakir (vs. NYJ), Jordan Addison (vs. GB) and Jerry Jeudy (vs. MIA.)
Week 16 TE1s
| Rank | Player | Fantasy Points Last Week |
|---|---|---|
| TE1 | Brock Bowers, LV | 20.90 |
| TE2 | Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN | 19.10 |
| TE3 | George Kittle, SF | 18.60 |
| TE4 | Dalton Schultz, HOU | 15.50 |
| TE5 | David Njoku, CLE | 14.60 |
| TE6 | Sam LaPorta, DET | 14.30 |
| TE7 | Hunter Henry, NE | 13.90 |
| TE8 | Mark Andrews, BAL | 13.80 |
| TE9 | Jonnu Smith, MIA | 12.20 |
| TE10 | Isaiah Likely, BAL | 11.90 |
| TE11 | Tyler Conklin, NYJ | 10.90 |
| TE12 | Jake Ferguson, DAL | 10.00 |
Season-Long TE1s
| Rank | Player | Fantasy Points This Season |
|---|---|---|
| TE1 | Brock Bowers, LV | 233.10 |
| TE2 | George Kittle, SF | 212.70 |
| TE3 | Trey McBride, ARI | 200.00 |
| TE4 | Jonnu Smith, MIA | 192.10 |
| TE5 | Travis Kelce, KC | 173.00 |
| TE6 | Mark Andrews, BAL | 158.60 |
| TE7 | David Njoku, CLE | 148.50 |
| TE8 | Hunter Henry, NE | 145.40 |
| TE9 | Sam LaPorta, DET | 142.90 |
| TE10 | Cade Otton, TB | 140.60 |
| TE11 | Tucker Kraft, GB | 138.90 |
| TE12 | Zach Ertz, WAS | 136.80 |
Most TE1 Games This Season
| TE1 Games | Players |
|---|---|
| 12 | George Kittle |
| 11 | |
| 10 | Trey McBride |
| 9 | Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Brock Bowers |
| 8 | Jonnu Smith, Travis Kelce |
Most TE1 Games Allowed
| TE1 Games Allowed | Team DSTs |
|---|---|
| 11 | CIN |
| 10 | |
| 9 | CHI, GB |
| 8 | IND, JAX, LAR, LV, TB, WAS |
| 7 | BAL, CAR, NO, PIT |
| 6 | BUF, CLE, HOU, KC, MIA, MIN, PHI, SEA |
| 5 | DAL, DEN, NE, NYJ |
| 4 | DET, LAC, NYG |
| 3 | SF |
| 2 | ARI, ATL, TEN |
The Bengals have now allowed eleven TE1 games on the season, though their matchup this week against the Broncos don’t help dynasty managers much. Denver uses multiple tight ends, making it difficult to pinpoint the beneficiary, especially with a championship on the line.
Actually, most of the tight ends with juicy matchups this week are tough to trust with these stakes. They include Noah Fant (vs. CHI), Daniel Bellinger (vs. IND), Cade Otton (vs. CAR), Juwan Johnson (vs. LV) and Pat Freiermuth (vs. KC.) The player I would ideally be starting this week, along with Kelce, is TJ Hockenson, who faces the Packers. Only the Bengals have given up more TE1 performances than Green Bay.
A trio of typical tight end fantasy starters now face challenging matchups in Week Seventeen. George Kittle has been a top-two fantasy tight end all season and now faces the Lions, who have allowed a league-low 8.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends. He should remain in your lineup, but OUCH! On the other sideline, Sam LaPorta is in a similar spot and the Niners are third-best in the league, giving up just 9.1 fantasy points per game. Finally, Jake Ferguson has been a disappointment this season and that’s unlikely to turn around against the Eagles this week. Sit him down!
Finally, here is the chart summarizing how teams have fared against each position. I’ve also included the schedule for this week for reference.
In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.