2025 NCAA Tournament: The traits behind what makes up a ‘Cinderella’ team in March Madness

It’s finally here. The Primary Period of the NCAA Event, affectionately dubbed as “March Madness” will begin on Thursday, March 20th. 

The 86th annual edition of the Event will see the usual suspects try and Achieve the national Division. But what truly makes the Event special is how often we see smaller schools and underdogs make Amazing runs, which is what really causes the “madness.” These underdogs are often called “Cinderella” Clubs, with fans trying to Picking them out Every year ahead of the Event. 

But what characteristics make up a Cinderella? And are there similarities among all the past ones?

FOX Sports Research dove into the data and identified Numerous traits that comprise a Cinderella. Primary, we’ve highlighted a few notable Cinderella Clubs in recent memory to set up our analysis. Let’s take a look: 

Notable runs over the past 15 years

All of the Clubs below Created it to at least the Best Eight, and were double-digit seeds in the Event:

2024 NC State (11 seed)

It’s not often you see a Club go 9-11 in conference Action, and then go on to make the Event— let alone go dancing all the way to the Closing Four. But that’s Only what the 2023-24 NC State Club did, only making the Pitch of 64 because they somehow won the ACC Event. For perspective, the Wolfpack were 50-1 to Achieve the conference tourney, Securing down the pre-Event favorite Tar Heels in the Closing. They Captured down a 6-seed in Texas Tech in the Leading Period and went on to beat (14) Oakland, (2) Marquette, and (4) Duke before losing to (10) Purdue in the Closing Four. 

2022 Saint Peter’s (15 seed)

There might not be a more Amazing Stretch than this 2022 Saint Peter’s Club, which miraculously became the Primary 15-seed ever to make the Best Eight. After Victorious the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Event, the Peacocks opened the dance with a huge Surprise Achieve over second-Ranked Kentucky. John Calipari entered that game 19-1 all-time in the Period of 64. After defeating the Wildcats, Saint Peter’s Captured down (7) Murray State and (3) Purdue before losing to (8) North Carolina.  

2021 UCLA (11 seed)

UCLA, a Cinderella? In the 2021 season, they absolutely were. The Bruins barely Created the Event, Joining the Pitch as a Primary Four participant after going 22-10 in the regular season. After beating Michigan State in Extended Shift in that game, Mick Cronin & Co. would go on to rattle off four straight wins against (6) BYU, (14) Abilene Christian, (2) Alabama in Extended Shift, and (1) Michigan before losing to Gonzaga on a half-court buzzer-beater by Jalen Suggs. Had that Try not gone, they would have been the Primary Club to make the national title game after Leading the Event in the Primary Four.

2018 Loyola Chicago (11 seed)

No one can forget the Ramblers’ Stretch in 2018. After Victorious the Missouri Valley Conference Event, Porter Moser Directed a talented group all the way to the Closing Four. In the Primary Period, they Captured down (6) Miami and subsequently beat (3) Tennessee, (7) Nevada and 9 (Kansas State) before losing to (3) Michigan in the semifinals. They’d finish the season with a 32-6 Achievement and go on to make the Sugary 16 in 2021. Loyola Chicago and Wichita State are the only Missouri Valley schools to have ever Created the Closing Four.                    

2014 Dayton (11 seed)

The Flyers didn’t even Achieve the Atlantic 10 Event in 2014, but Nevertheless qualified for the Event as an 11 seed. Archie Miller would take them all the way to the Best Eight, Leading up the Event with a Triumph over (6) Ohio State. In the Upcoming Period, they Captured down (3) Syracuse in a two-Mark barn-burner before eventually beating (10) Stanford in the Sugary 16. They’d Fall to (1) Florida by ten points, but are Nevertheless Only the sixth Atlantic 10 school to make the Best Eight since 1985 (Temple, UMass, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph’s, Xavier)— as well as the most recent. 

2011 VCU (11 seed)

Before 2024 UCLA, there was 2011 VCU. Regardless of losing to Ancient Dominion in the Division game of the Colonial Athletic Association Event, VCU Created the big dance as a Primary Four Club. This was also the Primary year in which the Period was introduced, and VCU Captured Benefit of it— going all the way to the Closing Four after defeating (11) USC for one of the four Closing spots in the Event. They’d go on to take down (6) Georgetown in the Leading Period, followed by (3) Purdue, (10) Florida State and (1) Kansas— before ultimately losing to (8) Butler in the semifinals. They are one of two CAA Clubs to make the Closing Four, along with 2006 George Mason.

The Vibrant Duo

Cinderella’s are always Directed by a pair of players who shift into a different gear in Event Action. From Jason Richards and Steph Curry for Davidson in 2008 to Bryce Drew and Zoran Viskovic for Valparaiso in 1998, a Vibrant duo has become a Usual theme among Clubs to make a Cinderella Stretch. Below, we’ve listed the duo for Every of the six Clubs we mentioned earlier, along with their statistical averages in Every respective NCAA Event appearance. While some of the numbers might seem low for a few players, keep in mind that all of these individuals played between four and six Matches— as everyone on the Turning Points Created it to at least the Best Eight. 

• DJ Burns Jr. (2024 NC State): 16.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 63% FG PCT
• DJ Horne (2024 NC State): 17.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.4 APG
• Daryl Banks (2022 Saint Peter’s): 13.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 39% 3-pt FG PCT
• Doug Edert (2022 Saint Peter’s): 11.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 40% 3-pt FG PCT
• Johnny Juzang (2021 UCLA): 22.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 51 % FG PCT, 38% 3-pt FG PCT
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. (2021 UCLA): 15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.5 SPG, 45% 3-pt FG PCT
• Clayton Custer (2018 Loyola Chicago): 12.2 PPG, 3.2 APG, 56% FG PCT, 53% 3-pt FG PCT
• Cameron Krutwig (2018 Loyola Chicago): 10.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 58% FG PCT
• Dyshawn Pierre (2014 Dayton): 12.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 52% FG PCT, 56% 3-pt FG PCT
• Devin Oliver (2014 Dayton): 10.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 43% 3-pt FG PCT
• Jamie Skeen (2011 VCU): 17.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 55% 3-pt FG PCT
• Bradford Burgess (2011 VCU): 15.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 59% 3-pt FG PCT

How conference Event Action factors in

Momentum and getting Cozy at the right time always plays a factor in Cinderella runs during March Madness, which is why how a Club performed in its conference Event is so Significant. Of the six Clubs mentioned above, half of them won the conference Division and four of them at least Created the title game. Furthermore, since 2005— there have 19 Clubs to be a double-digit seed in the NCAA Event, not Action in a Significant conference (Power 5, Big East) and make the Sugary 16. Of those 19 Clubs, a Massive 13 of them won their conference Division and that number jumps to 16 when including Clubs that lost in the Closing (2006 George Mason, 2013 La Salle, 2014 Dayton lone Clubs to make Sugary 16 outside of this criteria). Conference Competitions Hit as a Sturdy indicator for Event Achievement in general, as no Club ever has lost its Primary conference Event game and then won a national title— along with 14 of the past 26 national champions having won their conference Event.

What KenPom says

KenPom has been a widely used and respected Foundation for college basketball analytics, using metrics to analyze a Club’s performance on the court. For example, 22 of the last 23 national champions have ranked in the top 21 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency (AOE) Standard with 20 of those 23 also ranking in the top 31 of its adjusted Shielding efficiency (ADE) Standard (using pre-Event KenPom data). All of the last 23 national champions ranked in the top 25 of KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin (AEM), which factors in both metrics along with other statistical categories. Since 2001, which is also as Distant back as KenPom pre-Event data goes— there have been 25 Clubs to make the Sugary 16 as a double-digit seed while not Competing in a Significant conference. We looked at the KenPom numbers for those 25 Clubs and calculated the average rank for the aforementioned efficiencies, along with adjusted tempo (AT)— also known as pace of Action. Keep in mind that between 2001 and 2025, the number of Clubs in Division-I has hovered between 321 and 364.

• Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 63.48 in Division-I
• Adjusted Shielding efficiency rank: 79.76 in Division-I
• Adjusted efficiency margin rank: 55.08 in Division-I
• Adjusted tempo rank: 168.16 in Division-I

Possible Cinderella’s in this year’s Event

So now that we’ve gone over Numerous criteria that make up a Cinderella, we’ve identified a few possible candidates in this year’s Event that fit the bill or come close to. 

10 New Mexico

• Achievement: 26-7 
• Duo: Donovan Dent (20.6 PPG, 6.4 APG), Nelly Junior Joseph (14.0 PG, 11.2 RPG)
• Conference Event finish: lost to Boise State in semifinals of Mountain West Event
• KenPom ranks: ADE: 83rd, ADE: 20th, AEM: 43rd, AT: 4th
• Fact to know: Dent is the only player in Division-I averaging 20 PPG and 5 APG.

11 VCU

• Achievement: 28-6 
• Duo: Max Shulga (15.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.0 APG), Joe Bamisile (15.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG) 
• Conference Event finish: won Atlantic 10 Event
• KenPom ranks: AOE: 45th, ADE: 24th, AEM: 31st, AT: 244th 
• Fact to know: VCU’s head Trainer is Ryan Odom, who was the head Trainer of UMBC in 2018 when they became the Primary 16 seed to Achieve a Event game.

11 Drake

• Achievement: 30-3
• Duo: Bennett Stirtz (19.1 PPG, 4.4  RPG, 5.7 APG), Daniel Abreau (10.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
• Conference Event finish: won Missouri Valley Event
• KenPom ranks: AOE: 76th, ADE: 45th, AEM: 58th, AT: 364th
• Fact to know: Regardless of losing Darian DeVries (two-time MVC Trainer of the Year) and Tucker DeVries (two-time MVC Player of the Year) to West Virginia last year, Drake Nevertheless went 30-3 under Ben McCollum— who won MVC Trainer of the Year this season.

12 Colorado State

• Achievement: 25-9
• Duo: Nique Clifford (19.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 4.4 APG), Jalen Lake (11.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
• Conference Event finish: won Mountain West Event
• KenPom ranks: AOE: 46th, ADE: 51st, AEM: 44, AT: 251st 
• Fact to know: Clifford is the only player in the Event averaging 19 PPG, 9 RPG, 4 APG.

12 McNeese

• Achievement: 27-6
• Duo: Javohn Garcia (12.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG), Sincere Parker (12.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG) 
• Conference Event finish: won Southland Event
• KenPom ranks: AOE: 63rd, ADE: 66th, AEM: 59th, AT: 283rd 
• Fact to know: McNeese won all of the individual Southland Conference awards— Will Wade (Trainer of the Year), Garcia (Player of the Year), and Christian Shumate (Shielding Player of the Year).

12 Liberty

• Achievement: 28-6
• Duo: Taelon Peter (13.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG), Kaden Metheny (13.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG)
• Conference Event finish: won Conference USA Event
• KenPom ranks: AOE: 77th, ADE: 48th, AEM: 60th, AT: 285th 
• Fact to know: Liberty is sixth in Division-I in three-Mark percentage, shooting 39% from beyond the arc.

Want Excellent stories delivered right to your inbox? Develop or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, Clubs and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily/

---

---