Why Brendon McCullum’s express-pace Ashes plan is in danger of hitting the buffers, writes LAWRENCE BOOTH

The sight of Mark Wood flexing his left knee during the chastening defeat by Afghanistan was not just bad news for England’s Champions Trophy hopes.

It was a reminder that Ben Stokes’s plans to hit Australia with express pace this winter remain delicately poised between reality and fantasy. And fantasy has its nose in front.

England’s strategy to regain the urn has logic on its side — even if former captain Michael Vaughan questioned it on Friday. But it is true that, while England do not often win in Australia, fast bowlers usually play a pivotal role when they do. The deeds of Harold Larwood on the Bodyline tour of 1932-33, Frank Tyson in 1954-55 and John Snow in 1970-71 are all part of Ashes folklore.

Even Jimmy Anderson’s 24 wickets in 2010-11 played a central part in a 3-1 win, though that was a rare success for swing and seam.

And the lesson England have — slowly — learned from their last three visits Down Under, when they have been humiliated by a combined score of 13-0, is simple: right-arm fast-medium seamers reared on helpful English pitches and the Dukes ball struggle to overcome flat surfaces with the Kookaburra.

Fast bowler Mark Wood hurt his left knee during the first innings at Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore

With the exceptions above, it was ever thus. Since their first tour of Australia in 1876-77, England have won 57 Tests there and lost 99. And even with the Kookaburra doing more than usual during the recent Border-Gavaskar Trophy, when Australia beat India 3-1 and both top orders struggled, England’s change of tack makes sense.

Witness the decision to hand Wood, 35, a three-year central contract in late 2023 to ensure his fitness for the Ashes. That is the theory. In practice, as the last few weeks have shown, circumstances can be less malleable. Wood’s injury history is like a medical encyclopedia. Since his debut in 2015, he has played in 37 of England’s 128 Tests, yet the selectors have stuck with him for good reason.

In his most recent Test in Australia, in Hobart at the end of the disastrous Covid tour of 2021-22, he had the home batsmen hopping and flinching during his second-innings six for 37. And in 2023 he spearheaded England’s Ashes fightback with five for 34 on the first morning at Headingley.

He remains a match-winner, but England cannot realistically expect more than three Tests out of him in Australia. This would not usually be a problem, except their other fast bowlers have issues. Jofra Archer has not played a Test for four years, while his comeback from a chronic elbow problem has had ups and downs in white-ball cricket.

He can still be lethal on his day, and his opening spell against Afghanistan was among England’s very few Champions Trophy highlights.

England head coach Brendon McCullum has a lot of work to do ahead of the next Ashes series

All-rounder Ben Stokes missed the ICC Champions Trophy after undergoing hamstring surgery

Brydon Carse was one of England’s finds of the Test winter, taking 27 wickets at under 20 in Pakistan and New Zealand. But you only had to see the state of his big left toe after the second Test in Wellington to know England need to use him sparingly.

He was ruled out of the Champions Trophy after going for 10 an over against Australia — a fortnight after going for 10 an over against India. Just like Wood, Carse must be protected.

The same goes for Gus Atkinson, whose first year as a Test cricketer brought highlights galore. But his confidence took a dip in India, where 17 overs in three white-ball games cost 177 runs, and he has been surplus to requirements in Pakistan. Other potential fast bowlers remain on the periphery. Olly Stone played in none of the winter’s six Tests, while Josh Tongue has played two first-class matches since the second of his two caps in 2023. Matthew Potts is closer to 85mph than 90mph.

There is time for the pieces to fall into place, but recent weeks have shown the fragility of the best-laid plans. The success or otherwise of Brendon McCullum’s strategy may depend on Stokes, who can hit the late-80mphs and whose presence in a five-man attack allows three quicks to be used in short spells. Plan A is a lovely idea. The worry is England may have to reach for an as yet unspecified Plan B.