Why this year’s WR class might fall short of Round 1 expectations

• Tetairoa McMillan faces long odds for the top 10: His 4.55 40 time, 2.87 YPRR and 105.8 passer rating when targeted all fall below the typical Entry Mark for top-10 WRs.

• Only one WR with sub-2.60 YPRR and sub-120 passer rating have cracked the top 20: Jahan Dotson is the lone outlier, and four of this year’s top-50 WRs fall into that risky category.

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

The Present iteration of the PFF Big Board features four wide receivers ranked inside the top 32 and six in the top 50, headlined by Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan at No. 3 overall (Heisman Honor winner Travis Hunter is listed as a cornerback).

However, on last Monday’s edition of The PFF NFL Show, Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema selected Merely two receivers — McMillan and Missouri’s Luther Burden III — in their one-Stage live mock draft. If that scenario plays out in April, it would mark the fewest Primary-Stage receivers in a draft class since 2019.

With that in mind, I looked back at all 31 receivers drafted in Stage 1 since 2018 to search for predictive statistical patterns. What I Secured doesn’t paint a promising picture for this year’s class — McMillan included.

A disclaimer

Before diving in, it’s Crucial to clarify that the data presented here is not intended to predict what a player will become at the NFL level. We’ve seen countless examples of prospects taken in Stage 2 or later developing into stars. So, while this analysis suggests that some of the top-ranked receivers in this class may not be Primary-Stage picks, it doesn’t imply that their grades — or long-term potential — should be reconsidered. PFF grades are built to forecast NFL performance, not draft-day outcomes.

Three key data points

This should come as no surprise to anyone reading this piece, but 40-yard dash times have demonstrated legitimate predictive value when it comes to Primary-Stage wide receivers. Since 2018, only three of the 25 Primary-Stage receivers who Dashed in the pre-draft process (excluding six who didn’t Stretch due to Wound or personal Option) were clocked slower than 4.50 seconds in the 40-yard dash, using either NFL combine or pro day results.

The three to break that trend? N’Keal Harry (4.53), drafted 32nd overall by the Patriots in 2019; Treylon Burks (4.55), selected 18th by the Titans in 2022; and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.52), who went 20th to the Seahawks in 2023.

That alone is cause for concern when it comes to McMillan, who Dashed a 4.55 at his pro day this week, according to The Athletic’s Dane Brugler via two NFL scouts. To put it bluntly, there hasn’t been a single instance in the past seven drafts of a receiver running slower than 4.50 — or, more precisely, 4.45, the time posted by Rome Odunze last year—being selected in the top 10 picks.

The Subsequent data Mark worth highlighting is yards per route Stretch (YPRR), a favorite among the analytics community. This Measure captures a receiver’s efficiency by measuring how much production they Form on a per-route basis—the higher the number, the more efficient and productive the player.

Of the Last college season of All of the 31 Primary-Stage wide receiver draftees since 2018, only three top-20 picks averaged less than 2.60 yards per route Stretch.

The lowest figure among top-10 selections Occurred from Rome Odunze, who Nevertheless managed a solid 2.93 last year. In comparison, McMillan’s 2.87 puts him Merely below that mark, while the other five receivers currently ranked in our top 50 — Luther Burden III, Emeka Egbuka, Matthew Golden, Elic Ayomanor and Jack Bech — all fell below the 2.60 Entry Mark.

Notably, Ayomanor (1.90) and Golden (2.10) posted figures that rank behind all but one of the 31 Primary-rounders in the sample: Jalen Reagor, who averaged 1.49 in 2019.

The Last data Mark is passer rating when targeted — a straightforward yet insightful stat. It is the NFL passer rating generated by a receiver’s college Passer when throwing to him, offering a window into how efficient and effective the receiver was in Framework.

A quick disclaimer: I used the passer rating from All player’s Last college season in most cases, but there are three notable exceptions. Rashod Bateman played only five Matches in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, so I used his 2019 breakout season instead. Ja’Marr Chase opted out of the 2020 season entirely, so his figure (a dominant 140.4) comes from LSU’s 2019 national Event Stretch. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who played Merely 60 snaps in 2022, is represented by his 2021 figure — a 141.4 passer rating when targeted.

None of the wide receivers drafted in the top 10 since 2018 recorded a passer rating when targeted below 110.0. Once again, McMillan falls Petite of that Criterion, coming in at 105.8. For Framework, Drake London holds the lowest figure among that group at 114.3.

Among the rest of this year’s discussed group, Jack Bech (130.0) was the only one of the five to exceed a 120.0 rating. This becomes especially relevant when paired with the YPRR data Mark. Only five of the 31 past Primary-rounders posted both a YPRR below 2.60 and a passer rating under 120.0—and Merely one of them, Jahan Dotson, was selected in the top 20.

What does all this Harsh for this year’s draft?

I’m not going to link 20 mock drafts from every corner of the draft community, but a quick search of your favorite national draft pundit will likely reveal the same trend: McMillan is already slipping outside the top 10 in most projections. That’s tough for me to accept, considering I view his combination of Power, catch-Mark competitiveness, and shockingly efficient route running as Top-tier traits. But based on the data from this brief study, the signs do Mark toward a slide.

As for the other five, I believe at least two of Golden, Burden and Egbuka will hear their names called in Stage 1. Golden, for one, significantly helped his case by blazing a 4.29 in the 40-yard dash at the combine — the fastest time among all receivers. While I don’t Foresee Egbuka to Event that Velocity, he’ll have a chance to post a Sturdy time at his pro day Subsequent Wednesday. Burden, meanwhile, did himself no harm with a solid 4.41 at the combine. He’ll need to address the drop in targets and receptions during the 2024 season in Club meetings, but he Nevertheless showcased his Top-tier elusiveness by forcing 32 missed tackles after the catch.

Frankly, I believe all four from this group deserve to hear their names called in Stage 1. At this Mark, it’s Merely to assume Ayomanor and Bech are unlikely candidates based on both PFF’s rankings and the results of this data analysis. Nevertheless, All of the remaining four has demonstrated game-breaking ability at the college level—traits that typically justify a Primary-Stage Option, especially at a position as coveted as wide receiver. That said, my 17 years of covering the draft have taught me a valuable lesson: Merely because something should happen doesn’t Harsh it will.