Christmas came and with it came the first-ever Netflix-produced football games. Credit to the streaming giant for the quality of the game production and streaming quality as well (a concern after the Tyson-Paul debacle) … but Netflix caught no breaks with the actual games themselves on Wednesday.
This was particularly surprising given we got two matchups between four teams guaranteed playoff spots. But it hit home the harsh reality of the AFC. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: this is three-team playoff race. And the Christmas football proved it.
In the span of four days, the Chiefs have smothered both the Texans and the Steelers, while the Ravens have completely flipped the AFC North on its head and taken control of their divisional destiny thanks to Lamar Jackson reinserting himself squarely into the MVP conversation.
Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, Lamar is all the way down to +180, with Josh Allen — the presumptive winner for nearly a month now — has creeped back up into semi-bettable range at -240.
The Ravens’ odds to win the division are now -1600, wild considering the stranglehold the Steelers seemed to have on the North just a month ago.
But the reality is Baltimore’s the better team. And the Ravens are one of three teams that is inevitably going to battle for the AFC title. Maybe there’s some world where the Bengals sneak in and become a problem. But it’s a pretty massive long shot, especially with their playoff hopes taking a hit on Christmas.
That’s a Sunday worry, though. Wednesday taught us the Texans and Steelers, losers to top-tier teams for the second time in less than a week, just aren’t ready to run with the big dogs. Especially not when the Chiefs, who clinched the top seed for the fourth time in Patrick Mahomes’ eight seasons, get a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Week 17 best bets
Seahawks -2.5 1H (-122)
The Bears are losers of NINE STRAIGHT! And it’s a pretty quiet nine-game skid too, somehow, thanks to all the different teams vying for the No. 1 overall draft pick this year. The dregs of the NFL are especially scummy in 2024. One of the hallmarks of this run for Chicago has been slow starts to games, with Caleb Williams playing poorly, the Bears trailing early and then the offense being forced to turn things around by virtue of the scoreboard. I think Seattle could hold on and cover/win here — the Bears defense has fallen off a cliff since they fired Matt Eberflus, while Seattle’s defense has been much better once it got healthy. But the first half for the Seahawks should be a good look given the Bears struggles early in games coupled with Seattle’s desperation to win this football game and stay alive in the NFC West/playoff hunt. This is a can’t-lose game for Seattle, even if the Rams game in Week 18 looms as a monster test on the horizon.
Chargers/Patriots Under 43.5
This is a mammoth game for the Chargers, another key “can’t-lose” spot for a playoff contender. The Chargers draw a rookie quarterback on a bad football team with no weapons and a defense that probably feels deflated after laying it all out there against the Bills, only to see Buffalo pull away and win a huge division game. Jerod Mayo’s got this team playing hard, but he’s still learning on the job when it comes to game management. That’s a massive disadvantage against someone like Jim Harbaugh, who pulls all the right strings. I expect a hefty dose of the run game from L.A. here, with the goal to be shortening the game, forcing Drake Maye to be hyper efficient on all his drives and getting out of Dodge with a win, no matter how ugly it might get. Long, sustained drives should kep this matchup in the 30s. Shop around because you can still get a great number on this — it’s 42.5 or lower in some spots.
Rams/Cardinals Under 47.5
Before the season I pegged this game for Week 17 best ball teams, hoping it would be a shootout between two questionable defenses with stout offenses. I no longer think that will be the case. And it’s largely because of the systemic failures of the Cardinals defense coupled with the stepping up by the Rams defense. Add in Sean McVay’s preference for pounding the ball with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum and you’ve got the recipe for the Rams to run, run, run all day long and force Kyler Murray to throw. With the Cards eliminated from playoff contention thanks to a heartbreaking loss to the Panthers, it wouldn’t be shocking to see key personnel like James Conner (who suffered an injury in the middle of a monster game against Carolina) sitting. Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t developed the way Arizona hoped this year and Kyler’s been flat-out bad down the stretch. We could see the Cardinals struggle to get to 20 points here and the Rams melt clock.
Bengals (-3) vs. Broncos
This is an enormous game for the playoff picture, with Cincy clinging to the tail end of its playoff hopes. It’s also a Saturday prime-time game, meaning Joe Burrow is gonna show up in some kind of funky post-Christmas hipster casual wear, which isn’t an insult — it’s when you know Burrow is ready to destroy an opponent. The Broncos defense has been way better than anyone expected this year, and the unit can deploy Patrick Surtain II on Ja’Marr Chase, which will certainly make life tough for the All-World wide receiver. But that’s the beauty of the Bengals: they have TWO alphas who can step up, with Tee Higgins presenting a problem as well. Chase can slide to the slot and work underneath a lot also, which might mean the Broncos send Surtain traveling less than one might expect. Chase Brown should eat here as well and Burrow has just been unstoppable for almost all of the season. The Bengals record belies his production. Bo Nix is going to struggle to keep up, although this could certainly end up becoming a shootout.
Titans-Jaguars Over 39.5
This feels extremely dangerous given how bad these two teams are. But did you see what the Colts did to the Titans last week?? The Jaguars should be able to move the ball pretty easily, even with Mac Jones at the helm. Brian Thomas Jr. is in a possible explosion spot, once again, and you can make the case he’s the best wideout in this rookie class. On the other side, Mason Rudolph has the Titans offense kind of moving, and will start here in place of Will Levis. I wouldn’t rule out the Titans struggling and going to Levis, which would only open up this game for points from the defense and some high-variance downfield throws. The Jaguars cannot stop ANYONE. Aiden O’Connell looked borderline competent against Jacksonville last week and we could see Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley go off in this spot. It’s a pretty fun DFS look somehow!