Women’s college basketball conference tournaments: Who will earn overall No. 1 NCAA seed?

Power conference teams are padding (or hurting) their resumes with championship games on Sunday. The ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 will crown a winner with Selection Sunday looming a week away. Midmajor conferences are also celebrating teams earning automatic qualifying bids for the NCAA Tournament.

Follow allow as our experts break down Sunday’s action:

No. 1 overall seed up for debate

It was never going to be cut and dry in a season like this, not when the top spot in women’s college hoops was a carousel between multiple teams throughout the season. And after a weekend in which the four major conferences crowned tournament winners, there’s even more of a debate about which team will be revealed as the No. 1 overall seed heading into the NCAA Tournament.

In the committee’s two top-16 reveals in February, UCLA stood as the No. 1 overall team, but after the second reveal, the Bruins dropped a decisive game against USC to concede the Big Ten regular-season title (their second loss of the season, and their second to USC). That put their spot atop the bracket in question. But by beating USC in the Big Ten tournament title game, the Bruins are back in the conversation.

It’s hard to know exactly what the committee might decide. Here’s how the resumes look:

• UCLA, the newly crowned Big Ten tournament champs, certainly has a case to retain that No. 1 spot it held through the first two reveals. The Bruins have 14 Quad 1 wins and are 18-2 against the top 100 (with their only two losses coming to USC). They have wins over USC and South Carolina.

• Texas, which was the No. 2 team in the most recent reveal, finished the SEC regular season as the co-champs with South Carolina. But when they met again in the SEC tournament title game, it didn’t look great for the Longhorns. Texas has 14 Quad 1 wins and is 20-2 against top-100 teams. The Longhorns’ NET strength of schedule ranked second nationally.

• USC, the No. 3 team in the late February reveal, won the Big Ten regular season and advanced to the tournament title game. The Trojans looked strong until a dry spell in the fourth quarter, as USC went cold until JuJu Watkins hit the Trojans’ first field goal of the quarter with 1:13 remaining. Their NET strength of schedule is fourth-best nationally, they’re 13-3 against Quad 1 opponents, and they earned two wins over UCLA and a win over UConn.

• South Carolina, which stood at No. 5 — the top No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament — in the last reveal won a share of the SEC regular-season title, and then won the tournament outright. The Gamecocks have the No. 1 NET strength of schedule, are 16-3 against Quad 1 opponents and have 22 wins against the top-100 teams (more than any other team nationally). The Gamecocks have two wins over Texas.

• Notre Dame had been the No. 4 team in the final reveal ahead of Selection Sunday, but the Irish seem to have played themselves out of contention with their late-season struggles and early exit in the ACC tournament. They end the season 6-5 against Quad 1 opponents.

• UConn, which will play for the Big East tournament title on Monday, had the No. 1 overall NET ranking as of Saturday evening. The Huskies had the second-strongest nonconference schedule and went 5-3 against Quad 1 teams. They also have a win over South Carolina.

Did TCU’s historic win secure No. 2 seed?

Add another accomplishment to TCU’s 2024-25 historic season. The Horned Frogs fought off Baylor on Sunday 64-59 to win the team’s first Big 12 tournament title. Conference Player of the Year Hailey Van Lith claimed her first conference tournament championship in five NCAA seasons and led the Horned Frogs with 20 points. Three other Horned Frogs scored in double figures.

TCU emerged as an offensive juggernaut throughout the season, scoring 117.3 points per 100 possessions, second most in the nation. But it was the Horned Frogs’ defense that was critical in Sunday’s victory. They held the Bears to just 19 first-half points and limited Baylor from both 3-point range (the Bears shot only 22.2 percent). Baylor also had just six fastbreak points and eight second-chance points.

The Bears climbed back from a 13-point second-quarter deficit to tie the game with 3:43 remaining, but TCU center Sedona Prince and Van Lith responded with layups on consecutive offensive possessions to help TCU remain ahead. The Prince and Van Lith pairing continues to be effective, as the duo entered Sunday’s title game with a 30.7 NET rating when on the floor together.

Two seasons after winning just a single conference game, TCU established itself as a Big 12 power this year. Including Sunday, the Horned Frogs have led at halftime in an NCAA-leading 32 games, including in 24 straight contests. They now have eight Quad 1 wins, rank top-five in NET rating, and will likely climb above their No. 8 rank in the AP poll.

LSU’s SEC semifinal loss and NC State’s ACC tournament loss should position the Horned Frogs as a No. 2 seed on Selection Sunday. That would be another piece of history for TCU, which has never earned better than a No. 6 seed or advanced into the tournament’s second weekend.

Does South Carolina have the blueprint to beat Texas?

The tenor of the SEC tournament final between South Carolina and Texas changed in the second quarter. That’s when the Gamecocks’ defense clamped down on Texas’ offense. South Carolina’s athletic wings stifled Texas star Madison Booker. The Gamecocks’ deep frontcourt crowded Longhorns center Taylor Jones. The Gamecocks dared Texas to settle for 3-pointers.

South Carolina opened the second quarter on a 15-0 run, and the Longhorns didn’t score until the 3:29 mark of the period. After Rori Harmon sunk Texas’ first basket of the frame, South Carolina’s Joyce Edwards answered with a semi-transition layup seven seconds later.

South Carolina’s second-quarter sprint proved to be the difference in its 64-45 victory to claim a third consecutive SEC tournament title.

A two-point South Carolina first-quarter lead ballooned in the second quarter. After 20 minutes, Texas had 16 first-half points — its fewest in a half this season, and the fewest a team had scored in SEC tournament final history — and trailed by 17. The Longhorns didn’t make things any easier in the third quarter. They turned the ball over on their opening possession of the second half, and suffered another seven-minute drought without a field goal.

The Longhorns have one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball. Entering Sunday, they shot 46.5 percent from the field. But their offense relies on getting to the free throw line, converting second-chance opportunities and scoring in the paint. Texas attempts only 11 3-pointers per game, which is in the bottom 20 nationally.

Against South Carolina, the Longhorns shot only 29.6 percent from the field. They didn’t attempt a free throw until the third quarter. They scored only seven second-chance points — less than half of their 16.8 average — and 18 points in the paint, a significant drop-off from the 40.1 they average.

Come Selection Sunday, Texas will still be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. And it’s worth noting Sunday’s title game tipped off not even hours after the Longhorns’ semifinal win over LSU ended. Still, South Carolina made Texas appear like a shell of the program that has won 31 games this season.

Stopping Texas has been hard this season. It’s lost only three times, once to Notre Dame in overtime, and twice to South Carolina. But three of the Longhorns’ five worst shooting games came in defeats. Their losses came in three of the six games in which they attempted fewer than 15 free throws. Their 18 turnovers tied the second-most they’ve had all season. The only game worse was their loss to the Irish.

Texas could still make a Final Four, but it’s hard to imagine opponents not studying South Carolina’s game plan. The question will be, can anyone replicate it like the Gamecocks?

Wings coach watches Paige ‘Buckets’

Paige Bueckers got it going early for the Huskies in an 82-54 Big East semifinal win over Villanova. Better yet for the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft: Wings head coach Chris Koclanes and GM Curt Miller, who have the top pick, had courtside seats to the senior’s big game as she exploded for 21 first-half points.

Though there’s little doubt regarding whose name will be called first on draft day, Koclanes and Miller most certainly enjoyed the show in Uncasville, Conn.

As good as the performance was for Bueckers — she finished with 23 points, six assists and a block — it was better news for UConn. Bueckers does UConn a huge service when she comes out aggressive in games. It not only allows her to find a flow early, but it opens up lanes and opportunities for her teammates.

One of coach Geno Auriemma’s points that he has been hammering with Bueckers over the last few seasons, but especially this year, is to not defer in big moments and take over games early. When she can set the tone, as she did against Villanova, the Huskies put themselves in a better position to wear down opponents and create separation.

Duke captures first ACC title of Kara Lawson era

The Blue Devils lost four ACC games during the regular season. They avenged the first loss to North Carolina during the final week of regular-season conference play, then delivered payback for the other three defeats over three consecutive days in the ACC tournament: first over Louisville in the quarterfinals, then Notre Dame in the semifinals, and culminating with a dominant comeback over NC State for the championship.

With a 76-62 victory over the Wolfpack, Duke won its first ACC title in more than a decade, the first championship of Kara Lawson’s head coaching tenure. As the winners of six straight games heading into the NCAA Tournament — five of them against fellow tournament teams — the Blue Devils are peaking at the right time.

Duke erased a 14-point second-quarter deficit against NC State, which fell in the conference title game for the second straight season, by leaning on ACC tournament MVP Oluchi Okananwa. Lawson deployed the sixth woman on Wolfpack leading scorer Aziaha James, shutting down NC State’s offense at the source a day after Okananwa had Hannah Hidalgo as an assignment. The Blue Devils spread out the Wolfpack on offense, attacked the offensive glass and made NC State pay for dropping back on pick-and-rolls by hitting their jumpers.

It all started with Lawson inserting little-used reserve Jordan Wood on the final possession of the first half. The sophomore forward, who played only five minutes, found herself open on the corner after a high screen at the top of the key and drained the 3 to cut the lead to seven. Duke’s coaching staff pushed all the right buttons from that point forward.

The Blue Devils were the 11th-ranked team in the latest seeding reveal, but have since picked up wins over three teams ahead of them (Notre Dame, NC State and UNC), giving them a chance of rising to the No. 2 line. TCU would be the primary competitor for that spot, but Duke has now matched the Horned Frogs’ best wins over the Irish and the Wolfpack and has beaten a common opponent, Kansas State, that beat TCU.

This is the second time the Blue Devils will host during the Lawson era; the first time ended in a second-round upset to Colorado on their home floor. It would be shocking for Duke to fall so early this season. And if the revenge tour continues, watch out for a potential rematch with South Carolina.

Which teams have earned NCAA Tournament bids?

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

USC Trojans, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Duke Blue Devils, UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, TCU Horned Frogs, LSU Lady Tigers, Texas Longhorns, Women’s College Basketball

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